As we head into the final stretch of the 2025 NFL regular season, the playoff picture is still wide open - but the race for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft? That’s starting to take shape.
While teams like the Bears and Patriots have flipped the script with new head coaches and found themselves in the thick of the playoff hunt after rough 2024 campaigns, a handful of others are locked in a different kind of battle - one that could shape the future of their franchises for years to come. The Titans, Raiders, Saints, Jets, and Giants are all very much in the mix for the top pick, and with Week 13 nearly in the books, the draft order is beginning to crystallize.
Let’s break down where things stand.
Tennessee Titans (1-11)
Current odds for No. 1 pick: Over 50%
The Titans are the league’s lone one-win team, and they’ve lost six straight since parting ways with head coach Brian Callahan back in October. Sunday’s loss to the Jaguars dropped them to 0-6 at home this season - a tough pill to swallow for Titans fans - but it also pushed their odds of landing the top pick to better than 50%.
Rookie quarterback Cam Ward, last year’s top selection, has struggled to find consistency. A 59.4% completion rate with seven touchdowns and six interceptions isn’t exactly the rookie-year leap Tennessee hoped for. Still, there’s time, and another top pick could be a key piece in the long-term rebuild.
Tennessee already lost to the Raiders back in Week 6, which could be a tiebreaker if things get tight down the stretch. But the real spotlight will be on Week 17, when the Titans host the Saints in a game that could have massive implications for draft positioning.
Remaining schedule:
@ Browns, @ 49ers, vs.
Chiefs, vs. Saints, @ Jaguars
Las Vegas Raiders (2-10)
Current odds for No. 1 pick: ~18%
Pete Carroll’s first season in the desert has been a tough one. The Raiders have shown flashes - especially from rookie tight end Brock Bowers, who brings a spark every time he touches the ball - but the offense as a whole has sputtered. Vegas ranks bottom three in both yards and points per game, and a 31-14 loss to the Chargers on Sunday only deepened the hole.
What really puts the Raiders in play for the top pick is their brutal remaining schedule - the second-toughest in the league, per ESPN. If the losses keep piling up, Vegas could be right there with Tennessee when the season ends.
Remaining schedule:
vs.
Broncos, @ Eagles, @ Texans, vs. Giants, vs.
Chiefs
New Orleans Saints (2-10)
Current odds for No. 1 pick: ~14%
The Saints showed some fight against the Dolphins, mounting a second-half comeback and even recovering an onside kick - but it wasn’t enough. The loss officially knocked them out of playoff contention and kept the losing streak alive at seven games.
Rookie QB Tyler Shough has taken over under center after Spencer Rattler’s 1-7 start, and while Shough did notch a win in his debut against Carolina, the jury’s still out on whether he’s the long-term answer in New Orleans. That Week 17 matchup with the Titans looms large - a loss there could nearly double the Saints’ odds of landing the top pick.
Remaining schedule:
@ Buccaneers, vs.
Panthers, vs. Jets, @ Titans, @ Falcons
New York Giants (2-10)
Current odds for No. 1 pick: ~4% (pre-MNF)
The Giants head into Monday night’s matchup with the Patriots still technically in the running for the top pick, but just barely. A loss would bump their odds slightly to around 5%.
A win? That drops them to less than 1%, likely putting them out of contention.
There’s still a lot of uncertainty about the future under center, and the back half of the schedule isn’t exactly a cakewalk. But unless the Giants lose out, they’re probably looking at a pick somewhere in the top five - not quite No. 1.
Remaining schedule:
@ Patriots, vs.
Commanders, vs. Vikings, @ Raiders, vs.
Cowboys
New York Jets (3-9)
Current odds for No. 1 pick: Dropping
The Jets were in prime position for the top pick heading into Sunday, but a dramatic 56-yard game-winning field goal by Nick Folk lifted them past the Falcons and out of the basement - at least for now.
Tyrod Taylor earned his first win since taking over for Justin Fields, and rookie wideout AD Mitchell had his breakout moment. The Jets have already signaled a shift toward the future, having traded away their two best defensive players at the deadline, and while they may not be in line for the No. 1 pick anymore, a top-five selection is still very much in play.
Remaining schedule:
vs.
Texans, @ Dolphins, vs. Saints, @ Patriots, @ Bills
The Draft Picture So Far
With five weeks to go, the Titans are in the driver’s seat for the No. 1 overall pick - again. But they’re not alone. The Raiders and Saints are right on their heels, and that Week 17 Titans-Saints clash could end up being the most consequential game of the season… just not in the way either team hoped when the schedule came out.
And while the Jets and Giants are starting to slide out of the top-pick conversation, they’re still close enough to keep things interesting.
The 2026 draft class brings its own set of questions, especially at quarterback. Alabama’s Ty Simpson is the top QB on most big boards, but his limited experience may give some front offices pause. Meanwhile, Ohio State linebacker Arvell Reese is getting top billing overall - a sign that this year’s class could be more defense-heavy at the top than usual.
Bottom line: the race for the playoffs is heating up, but for these five teams, the real prize might be waiting in Pittsburgh next April.