The Titans have spent most of the AFC South era finding a way to avoid the bottom rung. Since the division formed in 2002, Tennessee has gone winless in it only once - and that disaster came last year during the Brian Callahan fallout, when the Titans stumbled to a 3-14 season.
Now the franchise turns the page with Robert Saleh in charge, and the roster looks better than the one that unraveled a year ago. That alone gives Tennessee a real shot to avoid another division-free collapse. The question is how many AFC South games the Titans can actually steal.
The early stretch is rough. By the time Tennessee gets to its Week 5 home meeting with the Texans, it will already have absorbed the Eagles, Giants, and Ravens in back-to-back-to-back weeks.
That is not exactly the kind of runway that invites comfort. Houston also already showed what it can do to the Titans, blanking them in September, while the second meeting was tighter at 16-13.
Even with the game in Tennessee, the Texans are viewed as the class of the division, and it is hard to see the Titans fully sorted out by then.
A road trip to Indianapolis offers a better chance, but not by much. Tennessee is expected to win at least one game against the Colts, though this first one away from home looks like the tougher ask.
It comes as the second straight division game and the third road contest in four weeks, which makes it easy to picture another Titans loss. Still, the Colts are not exactly setting the division on fire after going 8-9 last year and then losing WR Michael Pittman Jr. and EDGE Kwity Paye this offseason, among others.
That makes the matchup worth watching, even if the projection leans Indianapolis.
Then comes a spot that could swing the whole AFC South outlook for Tennessee: a home game against the reigning division champions. If the Titans are sitting at 0-2 in the division by then, they should be more settled in Saleh’s system and carrying plenty of edge. With the late-season stakes climbing and a division win badly needed, Tennessee gets the nod here.
The next matchup is where the Titans are expected to give that win right back. Jacksonville, powered by Liam Coen and Trevor Lawrence, figures to bring the more explosive offense, and Brian Daboll’s group would need a fiery night to keep pace.
Tennessee was blown out in Jacksonville in the final game of the 2025-26 regular season, 41-7, and Cam Ward left early because of a shoulder injury. A sweep was floated as a possibility, but the more realistic call is a loss.
The Jaguars may be chasing a playoff spot by then, and if the Titans have just knocked them off two weeks earlier in this projection, the atmosphere should be plenty hostile.
The second projected win comes against the Colts late in the year. Indianapolis finished last season on a seven-game losing streak, and even with the context of injuries under center, the Colts look like the weakest team in the division outside of Tennessee. At home, and possibly sitting around the 4-5 win range overall, the Titans have a real chance to push through and grab a result that feels meaningful in this setup.
That would also put Tennessee on track for a 6-11 finish, which is hardly glamorous but would at least match the combined win total of the previous two seasons. More importantly, 2-4 in the division beats 0-6 by a long shot.
The finale is the trip to Houston, and that is where the run is expected to end. Last season, the Titans were shut out 26-0 in that building, and Ward went viral after his postgame comments.
This time, the hope is simply that Tennessee avoids another disaster. But if the Texans are still chasing an AFC South title or a playoff berth, the setup points to a loss and a respectable first year for Saleh.
So no, two division wins probably will not make the Titans a threat at the top of the AFC South. But it would make the race interesting, and it would leave Tennessee looking a whole lot better than last place.
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Robert Salehs new coaching staff, along with upgrades on the offensive line and additions at receiver, give Tennessee a much different look than a true tear-down team. Even if the quarterback question remains the biggest factor in how far this group can go, the setup is at least pointing toward progress, which is why this kind of label is one the Titans have every reason to push back on. [Read more 🡒]