The first week of the NFL season already reshaped the futures board, and the most obvious shift has come with the Los Angeles Rams. After losing to the San Francisco 49ers in Australia and then learning that Myles Garrett needs knee surgery, the Rams are no longer the Super Bowl favorites in The Athletic’s NFL Playoff Simulator.
That spot now belongs to the Baltimore Ravens at 17 percent, with the Rams at 14 percent. Los Angeles still sits as the betting favorite, though, with odds ranging from +500 to +650 depending on the sportsbook.
Even with that, the Rams still narrowly lead the 49ers in the NFC West and NFC race.
That’s part of the reason the early-season futures board already feels unstable. The Arizona Cardinals pulled off the week’s biggest upset by beating the Los Angeles Chargers, while the New England Patriots - one of last week’s debut futures plays in this column - dropped a game they should have had against the Seattle Seahawks.
On top of that, A.J. Brown suffered a high ankle sprain and is expected to miss at least four games, leaving the portfolio underwater after just one week.
Still, there are a few spots worth attacking now.
San Francisco is the cleanest one. The 49ers are listed at +1500 to win the Super Bowl, -194 to make the playoffs, and +210 to win the NFC West.
The case is simple enough: they already own a straight-up win over the Rams, and Seattle will be without quarterback Sam Darnold for quite some time as well. The numbers suggest value across the board, and the current prices are still attractive enough to get involved.
Maybe this looks like buying high, but the situation around the Rams and Seahawks is enough to make the 49ers worth backing right now. The model sees value on San Francisco to win the Super Bowl, reach the playoffs, and take the division.
Green Bay is the opposite. The Packers are -152 to miss the playoffs, with value noted up to -200.
For much of their game against the Minnesota Vikings, they looked like they might steal a road win, but things unraveled fast. The offensive line’s play stood out for all the wrong reasons, and that’s the kind of problem that can drag a season down.
Add in the fact that there is still no Micah Parsons for another month or so, and the Packers at these prices are hard to trust. The model even sees the Jets as live to beat Green Bay in Week 2, which is enough reason to move now.
The Tennessee Titans round out the new plays, and this one is about as blunt as it gets. Tennessee is +500 to finish with the worst regular-season record, with value up to +400.
The offense offered little hope against the New York Jets, and the defensive line got pushed around by the Jets’ front. Put a bad trench team together with a quarterback who still hasn’t proven he’s an NFL starter at the league’s most important position, and the floor gets very low, very fast.
The Dolphins and Browns are in the mix too, but the Titans belong right there among the teams that could be picking first overall in April.
Existing NFL futures portfolio, added Sept. 9:
New England Patriots to win the Super Bowl (+2000), risk 0.1 units; to make the playoffs (-175), to win 0.5 units; over 9.5 wins (-145), to win 0.5 units. Denver Broncos.
Pittsburgh Steelers over 7.5 wins (-140), to win 0.5 units.
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Titans Home Opener Exposed Problems Fans Already Feared
The home opener brought a familiar kind of frustration for Titans fans, as Tennessee fell 23-10 to the Jets in a game that laid bare some early-season concerns. Malik Willis never really got the offense rolling, finishing 14 of 25 passing with a late touchdown after the game had already tilted away, while the defense had its own problems slowing down New York through the air.
Still, there were a couple of encouraging notes amid the disappointment. Rookie Carnell Tate showed promise, and Anthony Hill Jr. also turned in a performance that stood out on an otherwise rough afternoon. For a team trying to settle early doubts, those flashes mattered, even if the bigger picture after the opener was more about what went wrong than what went right. [Read more 🡒]