AFC South Power Shift: Jaguars Take Control While Colts and Texans Battle to Keep Pace
As we head into the final stretch of the regular season, the AFC South is shaping up to be one of the most compelling division races in the NFL. Week 14 brought clarity at the top-and chaos just beneath it.
The Jacksonville Jaguars now sit alone atop the division at 9-4 after a statement win over the Indianapolis Colts, a game that not only gave them a crucial head-to-head advantage but also left the Colts reeling. Indianapolis, once the early-season frontrunner, has now dropped three straight and four of their last five. To make matters worse, quarterback Daniel Jones exited Sunday’s game with an injury, casting a shadow over the Colts’ playoff hopes.
Meanwhile, the Houston Texans continue to be one of the league’s most intriguing stories. After an 0-3 start, they’ve clawed their way back into the playoff picture and are very much alive in the AFC South race, depending on how Sunday night’s matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs plays out.
Let’s break down where things stand in the division and what lies ahead.
AFC South Standings (After Sunday’s Games)
| Rank | Team | Record |
|---|
| 1 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 9-4 | | 2 | Indianapolis Colts | 8-5 |
| 3 | Houston Texans | 7-5 | | 4 | Tennessee Titans | 2-11 |
The Jaguars are now the first team in the division to hit nine wins, and they’ve earned victories over every other AFC South opponent. That gives them not just a lead in the standings, but a psychological edge heading into the final month. With a relatively soft schedule ahead, Jacksonville is in prime position to close out the division.
The Colts, on the other hand, are trending in the wrong direction. Their recent skid has knocked them out of the division lead and into the thick of the wild-card race.
The injury to Daniel Jones only adds to the uncertainty. Indianapolis will need to regroup quickly, because their remaining schedule is a gauntlet.
As for the Texans, they’re the wildcard-literally and figuratively. They’ve been red-hot after a brutal start and could find themselves just one game back of the division lead depending on Sunday night’s result. With a favorable mid-December stretch, Houston has a real shot to make things interesting.
And then there’s Tennessee. At 2-11, the Titans have officially clinched last place in the division. Their season is now about evaluation and looking ahead to 2026.
What’s Ahead: Remaining Schedules
Jacksonville Jaguars
- 12/14 vs. Jets
- 12/21 @ Broncos
- 12/28 @ Colts
- TBD vs. Titans
The Jaguars are in the driver’s seat, and their schedule sets them up nicely to stay there. Two of their final four games come against teams with losing records, and they’ll face the Colts again-possibly without Daniel Jones.
The only true test left is a road trip to Denver, where the Broncos have been tough all season. But if Jacksonville can take care of business, they’re in strong position to secure the division and potentially a home playoff game.
Indianapolis Colts
- 12/14 @ Seahawks
- 12/22 vs. 49ers
- 12/28 vs. Jaguars
- TBD @ Texans
The Colts’ path is anything but easy. They’ll face four teams all in the thick of the playoff hunt, starting with a cross-country trip to Seattle and a prime-time showdown with the 49ers.
Then comes a rematch with the Jaguars and a potentially decisive Week 18 clash with the Texans. If Daniel Jones can’t return soon, Indianapolis will need to lean heavily on its defense and run game to stay afloat.
Houston Texans
- 12/7 @ Chiefs
- **12/14 vs.
Cardinals**
- **12/21 vs.
Raiders**
- TBD @ Chargers
- TBD vs. Colts
Houston’s schedule is a tale of two halves. Sunday night’s game against the Chiefs is a major test, but after that, they get two manageable home matchups against the Cardinals and Raiders. The final two games-against the Chargers and Colts-could end up deciding not just the Texans’ playoff fate, but the shape of the entire AFC South.
Final Thoughts
The AFC South has turned into a three-team sprint to the finish, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. The Jaguars have the edge now, but the Colts and Texans are still very much in the mix-though for very different reasons. Jacksonville’s balance and favorable schedule make them the favorite, but if Houston keeps rolling and Indianapolis can steady the ship, we’re in for a dramatic December.
One thing’s for sure: the AFC South isn’t just competitive-it’s unpredictable. And as the playoff picture comes into focus, this division might end up being the one that delivers the most fireworks down the stretch.