TCU’s bye week has turned into a hard reset for an offense that has gone from a preseason question mark to one of the sport’s biggest letdowns.
Through five games, the Horned Frogs are 2-3 and 0-2 in the Big 12, and the numbers around the offense are ugly. TCU is 91st nationally in scoring offense, 15th in the Big 12 in sacks allowed and last in the league in rushing. That’s a brutal combination, even with a defense that ranks No. 13 nationally in scoring defense.
The change at coordinator was supposed to bring a different feel. Kendal Briles is gone after a season in which TCU averaged 30.7 points per game and finished 40th nationally, and Gordon Sammis arrived from UConn with a more pro-style approach built around tight ends and a reputation for developing offensive linemen. The Horned Frogs also moved from Josh Hoover to Harvard transfer Jaden Craig at quarterback.
Some drop-off was expected. This has been something else.
The biggest problem starts on the ground, where the new look has not produced the physical edge TCU was chasing. The Horned Frogs are running the ball at nearly the same rate as last season, with FourthandShort.com showing TCU at 47.6% runs this year compared with 46.2% under Briles.
But the results have slipped. TCU ranks 72nd nationally in rushing success rate, down from 61st a year ago.
The line of scrimmage tells a blunt story. TCU is 81st in stuff rate, which measures runs stopped at or behind the line, and 99th in line yards, a measure of how well the line moves defenders. Those numbers were worse last year, but they are still well below average now, and the simplest read is that TCU is getting knocked backward too often.
HUDL IQ shows the Horned Frogs below average at nearly every offensive line spot when it comes to yards gained outside of right guard, where Oklahoma State transfer Noah McKinney usually lines up. That lack of push has made life harder for junior running back Jeremy Payne, who has gained more than half of his yards against Power Four competition after first contact.
In TCU’s three losses, 11% of Payne’s runs have been stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage. Even so, his 50% success rate says plenty about his ability.
The advanced numbers back up the eye test. Payne’s rushing EPA is -.014, down from 0.09 last season. However you break it down, the run game has regressed.
Craig’s story is a little more complicated. He was never brought in to outdo Hoover, but TCU needed him to be efficient, protect the ball and add something with his legs. He has produced volume - 1,400 passing yards ranks 13th nationally and second in the Big 12 - but the production has not translated into enough points.
The issue shows up most clearly against stronger competition. Craig has four turnovers in the three losses and only one touchdown against Power Four defenses.
He was electric against Grambling State and Arkansas State, posting a total passing EPA of 32 on his dropbacks, but that number falls off a cliff against North Carolina, Central Florida and BYU, where he posted a negative pass EPA of -17.5. His scrambling has not provided the boost TCU wanted either, with a rushing EPA of -3.4 in those three games.
He has also had to deal with uneven protection. Craig has been sacked on 6.5% of his dropbacks, and 10.5% of those plays have ended in pressure. HUDL IQ shows TCU below average in allowing quarterback pressures almost everywhere up front, with senior Cooper Powers at left guard the exception.
That leaves Craig in a tougher spot than the Horned Frogs wanted. He was supposed to guide the offense, not carry it. Right now, the run game isn’t helping, the protection isn’t steady, and the burden on the former Ivy League quarterback has become too heavy.
HUDL IQ’s comparison list underscores the gap. SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings was identified as the closest match to Craig.
Craig’s per-play pass EPA is .10 and his success rate is 50.3%, while Jennings sits at .41 and 59.6%. Hoover’s EPA is .52 with a 56.3% success rate, and Miami quarterback Darian Mensah is at .68 and 67.7%.
Even against other Big 12 quarterbacks, Craig’s efficiency trails names like Arizona’s Noah Fifita and Oklahoma State’s Drew Mestemaker.
For TCU, the path forward looks obvious, even if the fix is not. Until the offensive line starts winning more often, the rest of the offense - Craig, Payne and the skill talent around them - is stuck fighting uphill.
In Other News...
TCU Is Not Alone In This Ugly Start But One Problem Looms
Early October has a way of exposing just how quickly a season can tilt, and TCU has already felt that in league play. The Horned Frogs enter this stretch at 2-3 overall after dropping their first two Big 12 games, a start that has plenty of company around the Power Four but still leaves little room for comfort as the schedule tightens and the standings begin to sort themselves out.
There are a lot of programs in similar trouble, with 14 teams sitting at 0-2 in conference play and 19 at or below .500 overall, but TCUs immediate concern is more personal than panoramic. The Frogs need a response soon, and the next few weeks will say plenty about whether this is just a rough opening run or the kind of start that keeps getting heavier as the season moves deeper into league play. [Read more 🡒]