TCU doesn’t need a flawless season to get back to the Big 12 Championship Game, but the Horned Frogs are going to have to earn nearly everything they get.
That starts with a schedule that does them no favors. TCU is set to face four of the five teams projected to finish ahead of it this season: Texas Tech, BYU, Utah and Arizona. In other words, the path is there - it’s just steep, crowded and unforgiving.
The margin for error is thin. Since 2020, no Big 12 Championship Game participant has gone into the title game with three or more conference losses, which means TCU can’t afford to let things spiral inside league play. If the Frogs can stay clean into October and then handle their October slate, they’d buy themselves a little breathing room before a brutal November stretch.
Even two losses wouldn’t necessarily slam the door. Since the Big 12 Championship Game was created, the field has featured two one-loss teams or better.
But history also shows how quickly a team can get stuck behind tiebreakers. Since 2021, there have been five cases of a Big 12 team losing just two games and still missing out.
The league has already shown how messy those finishes can get. In 2021, Oklahoma finished 7-2 in conference play but was left out after losing the head-to-head tiebreaker to Baylor, who also finished 7-2. Two years later, Oklahoma was bumped again in a similar setup after losing the head-to-head against Oklahoma State.
Then came 2024, when Arizona State, Iowa State, BYU and Colorado all finished 7-2. With all four teams having played Kansas, Kansas State, UCF and Utah, the league had to dig into common-opponent records. Arizona State and Iowa State ultimately got the spots.
And in 2025, Utah missed out because Texas Tech and BYU each lost only one conference game.
So yes, TCU can get there with a loss or two. But if that happens, the Frogs may need a little help from the rest of the Big 12.
That’s where the broader conference picture matters. A competitive Big 12 could actually work in TCU’s favor, even if it means more teams standing in the way. Texas Tech, BYU, Utah and Arizona all have a better-looking path to the championship game on paper, but none of them is untouchable.
Texas Tech has the friendliest road of the bunch. Its toughest games are against Houston, Arizona and TCU, and the Red Raiders are projected to finish first in the league for the second straight year.
BYU is coming off last year’s trip to the conference title game and will be chasing a bounce-back after its 34-7 loss to Texas Tech. But the Cougars’ schedule is far less forgiving than Tech’s. They get Arizona in Week 2, travel to TCU in the first week of October, face Notre Dame in a non-conference game that could spill over into the following week’s road trip to UCF, and later go on the road to Utah.
Utah, meanwhile, missed the championship game last season despite losing only two conference games. This year, the Utes appear to have a better lane, with their toughest matchups coming against BYU, at Arizona and at TCU.
Arizona is the other preseason contender trying to break through, and the Wildcats are aiming for their first conference championship appearance since joining in 2024. Their schedule brings all the other contenders to the table, along with a road trip to Kansas State and a home date with Arizona State.
For TCU, the math is simple enough. The Horned Frogs don’t need perfection, but they do need to win the games that matter most.
With Texas Tech, BYU, Utah and Arizona all on the slate, the schedule hands TCU exactly what it needs: chances to beat the teams most likely to block its path. If the Frogs cash in often enough, they may not need anyone else to open the door.
Kickoff is two weeks away.
In Other News...
TCUs Season Rests On A Quarterback Gamble Fans Cant Ignore
TCU is banking on a fresh face under center this fall, and Jaden Craig arrives with a rsum that makes him one of the more intriguing names in the Big 12. The Harvard graduate transferred in from the Ivy League and has already started drawing attention around campus, not just because of his background, but because of the visibility that has followed him since landing in Fort Worth through NIL opportunities.
Craig has not yet taken a meaningful snap for the Horned Frogs, which only adds to the curiosity around how his game will translate at this level. There is a bigger idea wrapped up in his move, too, since he is hoping to show that an Ivy League quarterback can stand up to Power-Four defenses, and TCU is willing to find out quickly as it puts its faith in a player with plenty to prove. [Read more 🡒]
Sonny Dykes Hinted Where TCU Camp Battles Stand Right Now
A closed scrimmage has a way of sharpening the picture in fall camp, and Sonny Dykes offered a few useful clues afterward about where TCU stands as the Horned Frogs keep sorting out roles and building toward the opener. The head coach touched on the depth chart, the progress the team has made in camp and the way several players have taken steps forward, with the rushing attack drawing particular mention as an area that has looked better.
Dykes also pointed to the development of players such as Jaden Craig and Michael Short, a sign that the competition is not only about settling starters but also about finding dependable pieces for the long haul. For TCU, the bigger challenge now is carrying that improvement into the season and sustaining it once the focus shifts from camp battles to weekly preparation for upcoming opponents. [Read more 🡒]
Sonny Dykes Has TCU Fans Dreaming Bigger Than Usual This Season
Fall camp has a way of feeding optimism, and this TCU preseason has given Horned Frogs fans plenty to chew on. Under Sonny Dykes, the conversation has moved beyond simple improvement and into the kind of wishcasting that usually comes with a team that thinks it has enough talent to make real noise, with fans and observers eyeing possible 1,000-yard seasons on both sides of the ball and a defense that could be more disruptive than it has been in recent memory.
The intrigue is not just about individual production, either. There is a growing sense around the program that the schedule could open the door to a fast start before the grind of conference play puts the season under a harsher spotlight, and that is why the buzz around the secondary matters so much. If the transfers in the back end settle in quickly, TCU may have the sort of top-end playmakers that can turn preseason hope into something far more believable once the games start counting. [Read more 🡒]