USC’s situation with Lincoln Riley does not have to end in the bluntest, most expensive way possible.
That’s the idea behind the possibility discussed on the USC LAFB Show: a clean break that only works if all sides line up. USC would need a path forward, Riley would need a place he wants to go, and another program would need to decide he’s worth the move.
It’s not being presented as an agreement, and it’s not a report that talks are underway. But with the pressure around the program growing, it’s a scenario worth keeping in view.
The on-field picture is what’s driving the conversation. After the loss to Wisconsin, USC is sitting at 6-2 and has little room left for another stumble.
If the Trojans finish strong and turn in a competitive playoff showing, Riley would have a much better case to make for staying put. Another letdown, though, would only sharpen the questions about where this is headed.
The argument here is less about whether Riley can coach and more about whether he is the right fit for USC in the Big Ten. His offensive system worked at Oklahoma, where the Sooners reached the College Football Playoff three times. The show raises the possibility that a return to the Big 12 might suit him better, giving him a chance to rebuild success in a setting that matches his background and style more closely.
That Texas connection keeps coming back into focus. Riley grew up in Texas, played at Texas Tech, and started his coaching career there. If he were to land elsewhere, the state would make the most sense as a landing spot.
Baylor comes up first, and for good reason. With Dave Aranda’s dismissal announced, it’s the clearest current opening discussed. The show references reporting that Baylor wants an offensive-minded coach with Texas ties, and Riley checks both boxes.
TCU is mentioned as another possible fit, but only if that job actually opens. The video raises the possibility that Sonny Dykes’ future could become a factor, though it stops short of saying that an opening exists. Still, the appeal would be similar to Baylor’s: Texas roots, offensive pedigree, and comfort in the Big 12.
Texas Tech is the most intriguing on a personal level and the most speculative in practice. Joey McGuire is still the coach, and there’s no report that a change is in motion. The discussion instead centers on whether Cody Campbell, a major financial backer, could push for a different direction if expectations are not met.
The money piece is where things get interesting. In theory, a school wanting Riley could help USC avoid the full weight of a buyout if everyone agreed to a negotiated exit. The show cites a roughly $70 million figure, while making clear that the exact mechanics are unknown.
That does not mean another school would just absorb USC’s entire obligation. A deal would depend on Riley’s contract and whatever negotiations followed. And if more than one program wanted him, that could create a reason to work something out before he ever reached the open market.
USC has seen a version of this kind of exit before. The show points to Andy Enfield’s departure from USC Basketball to SMU as an example of how a coaching relationship can run its course, another school can step in, and the original program can move on with a replacement like Eric Musselman. It’s a comparison, not a blueprint.
For now, the key things to watch are simple: how USC finishes, whether Baylor’s search keeps evolving, whether TCU’s job opens, whether Texas Tech seriously considers a change, and whether credible reporting ever confirms real interest in Riley.
A mutual split would not be as simple as USC deciding to move on. Riley would need a destination, and someone else would need to want him badly enough to help make it happen.