Just six days after falling to Colorado in a high-scoring battle, TCU men’s basketball flipped the script in dramatic fashion. The Horned Frogs stormed back from an 18-point deficit to edge out Kansas State 84-82, delivering one of their gutsiest performances of the season - and one that could prove pivotal in their push for a March Madness berth.
This win doesn’t erase the inconsistency that’s defined TCU’s season, but it does keep the door open. Sitting at 14-9 overall and 4-6 in the Big 12, the Frogs are still very much on the NCAA tournament bubble - a label head coach Jamie Dixon has openly acknowledged.
And he’s not alone. Bracketologists across the country have TCU hovering just outside the field of 68, with ESPN’s Joe Lunardi listing them in the “Next Four Out” group as of February 6.
That puts them roughly in the 73-76 range nationally, while KenPom’s advanced metrics slot them at No. 54.
Translation: TCU is right there, but the margin for error is razor-thin.
The Horned Frogs have faced their share of elite competition this season, squaring off against four top-10 teams and managing just one win - a notable one over then-No. 10 Florida.
That resume booster helps, but it’s not enough on its own. The Big 12, often described as a gauntlet, is also a land of opportunity.
As guard Tanner Toolson put it after a tough loss to Arizona, it’s a “conference of opportunities.” And for TCU, those opportunities are far from over.
Two major ones loom large on the schedule: matchups against No. 5 Iowa State and No.
16 Texas Tech. Either would qualify as a signature win - the kind that selection committees remember in March.
And if TCU can capitalize on one or both, it could go a long way toward tipping the scales in their favor.
Then there’s the Big 12 Tournament, which has served as a launching pad for bubble teams in years past. Think VCU in 2011, UCLA in 2021, Michigan in 2022, or Texas A&M just last year.
Each made a deep run in their respective conference tournaments and rode that momentum into the NCAA field. TCU has a chance to follow that same path.
But before they get there, the next big test comes Saturday, when the Frogs take on Iowa State in a prime-time showdown. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m.
ET on FS1 - and make no mistake, this one’s big. A win over a top-five opponent could be the statement TCU’s been looking for all season.
There’s still work to do, but if this team can bottle up the fight it showed against Kansas State, the Frogs might just be dancing in March after all.