TCU finally steps into Big 12 play Saturday, and the first test comes with a little bite to it: a road trip to UCF at 2:30 p.m. on FS1, with both teams sitting at 2-1 and trying to shake off disappointing losses to ACC opponents.
The setup feels like the kind of opener that can swing a season’s early mood. TCU brings a two-game winning streak and a quarterback who has settled in more each week.
UCF counters with a backup quarterback, a dangerous ground game and the kind of home environment that can still make life messy. Sportsbooks have the Horned Frogs as 3.5-point favorites, but this one looks far from simple.
For TCU, the biggest boost could be getting senior receiver Jordan Dwyer back on the field. The Horned Frogs have managed without their top wideout during non-conference play, but Sonny Dykes said Dwyer is expected to be available against the Knights.
Dwyer was listed as questionable on the Big 12 player availability report because of a nagging foot injury, though Dykes said earlier in the week that most people wouldn’t be able to tell he was dealing with anything. That matters because Dwyer is exactly the kind of weapon that changes how a defense has to play.
He finished second on the team last season with 730 yards and seven touchdowns, and he gives Jaden Craig a receiver who can stretch the field or win in tight coverage.
TCU’s defense has its own argument for why it can handle this matchup. The Horned Frogs have continued what they established last season by stopping the run, ranking fifth in the Big 12 in rushing defense at 79.3 yards allowed per game and 2.7 yards per carry.
That strength will be tested by UCF’s rushing attack, but the Knights are also dealing with an offensive line that is still unsettled. If TCU’s front can control the line of scrimmage, that could tilt the game.
The quarterback situation also leans TCU’s way. UCF starter Alonza Barnett, a transfer from James Madison, is out with a hamstring injury he suffered in a 12-7 Week 2 loss to Pittsburgh.
That leaves Keyone Jenkins to run the offense after a rough start against Georgia State, when he threw for just 86 yards with an interception and an ESPN QBR of 27.0 out of 100, though he did add a passing touchdown and two rushing scores. Jenkins has FBS starting experience from his time at Florida International, but the passing limitations are real.
Craig, by contrast, has looked much sharper since the Week 0 loss to North Carolina, stacking back-to-back 300-yard games. He doesn’t need another huge stat line here - just a cleaner day than Jenkins.
Still, UCF has its own case.
The Bounce House gives the Knights a real chance to make things uncomfortable, especially with TCU leaving home for only the second time this season. The Horned Frogs’ only other trip came in the Week 0 loss to North Carolina in Dublin, a neutral-site game where TCU fans were more visible than the Tar Heels’ crowd.
Saturday will be a different kind of test. UCF’s home-field edge may not be what it was in the American Conference days, but there should still be enough energy there to test TCU’s communication and discipline.
UCF also has a way to attack a possible TCU weakness. Arkansas State gave the Horned Frogs trouble with defensive stunts that disrupted their wide zone run game, and North Carolina found some of the same success in the second half.
That’s on tape now, and UCF can use it to try to slow junior running back Jeremy Payne and force Craig into a bigger burden. If TCU’s run game gets bogged down again, the pressure shifts quickly onto the quarterback in what could be the toughest road setting he has faced.
And then there’s Duke Watson.
UCF’s running back has been one of the nation’s most explosive backs through three games, sitting third in the country at 11.0 yards per carry with 297 yards and three touchdowns on just 27 attempts. He’s already ripped off 60-plus-yard runs against Bethune-Cookman and Georgia State, and he gives the Knights the kind of home-run threat that can change a game in one snap. Landen Chambers adds another layer, with 118 rushing yards and a 7.9-yard average of his own.
That’s the real tension in this matchup: TCU’s run defense has been a strength, but it has not yet faced a back quite like Watson. If the Horned Frogs win that battle, they put themselves in strong shape. If Watson gets loose, UCF has enough in the backfield to make this opener a lot more dangerous than the betting line suggests.
In Other News...
UCF Catches TCU In A Spot Big 12 Fans Will Notice
TCU heads into its matchup with UCF still trying to steady itself after a season-opening loss to North Carolina, a result that raised early questions about both the Horned Frogs overall quality and the play at quarterback. The Big 12 spotlight only gets brighter from here, and this game offers an immediate chance for TCU to show it can respond the way a team with higher expectations should.
UCF will be missing starting quarterback Alonza Barnett III, which adds another layer of intrigue to a game that already carries real weight for TCUs standing and perception around the conference. A win would help the Horned Frogs quiet some of the early noise, but it would not wipe away the damage from the opening loss, which is what makes this one more than just another September game. [Read more 🡒]
TCU Opens Big 12 Play With A Chance To Settle Last Years Pain
TCU heads to Orlando on Sept. 26 to open Big 12 play against UCF, and the matchup arrives with a little extra edge after what last year did to the Horned Frogs. They get there coming off a 31-7 win over Arkansas State, a game in which quarterback Jaden Craig has already put himself atop the Big 12 passing leaderboard and helped steady a team that wants its conference opener to feel like more than just a first step.
The timing also works in TCUs favor on the injury front, with UCF set to be without star quarterback Alonza Barnett III and the Frogs expecting wide receiver Jordan Dwyer back from injury. It is the kind of setup that can turn an early league game into a statement opportunity, and Fox Sports 1 will have the broadcast when the Frogs try to start settling some unfinished business. [Read more 🡒]
UCF Opens Big 12 Play With A Chance To Expose TCU Concerns
TCU heads into its Big 12 opener in Orlando with more questions than it likely wanted at this point in the season. The Horned Frogs are 2-1 and heading to the Bounce House to face a UCF team that has its own quarterback situation, but the bigger concern for TCU is the injury list, which includes the absence of Perry Cole Jr. and kicker Kyle Lemmermann. The return of Jordan Dwyer should help, but this is still the kind of early conference game that can reveal how deep a roster really is.
UCF is also expected to be short-handed, with starting quarterback Alonza Barnett III likely out and Keyone Jenkins set to take over. That leaves both teams trying to sort out personnel issues as league play begins, and it puts even more pressure on TCU to handle the trip cleanly. For a Horned Frogs team trying to get its footing before the Big 12 race starts to harden, this opener offers an immediate test of composure, depth and how well the next man up can keep things from getting away. [Read more 🡒]