TCU heads into Saturday’s Revivalry with a familiar problem and a very different kind of opponent waiting at McLane Stadium.
The Frogs and Baylor kick off at 6 p.m. CT in Waco, with both teams coming off a bye. On paper, the contrast is sharp: Baylor is 4-1 overall and 2-0 in the Big 12, while TCU sits at 2-3 and 0-2.
The raw yardage numbers are close enough to suggest a competitive game. Baylor is averaging 461.4 yards per game; TCU is at 405.4.
But the scoring output tells the real story. Baylor is putting up 34.8 points per game, while TCU is averaging 25.4.
For TCU, the issue is not moving the ball. It’s cashing in once it gets there.
Against Power Four opponents - North Carolina, UCF and BYU - the Frogs have managed only three touchdowns, one in each game. Those outings produced point totals of 10, 13 and 10, or 11 points per game across that stretch.
The season average looks better only because of the wins over Grambling State and Arkansas State.
That’s the offensive burden TCU carries into this matchup. Yardage without touchdowns won’t be enough.
The defense, though, has given the Frogs something to work with. TCU is allowing just 13.4 points and 255 yards per game, which compares favorably with Baylor’s 14.2 points and 326.6 yards allowed.
Even that strong defensive showing against BYU ended in frustration. TCU held the Cougars to 216 total yards but still came up short in a 17-10 loss. The defense did its part; the offense did not, and the Frogs also missed the late stop they needed.
That’s been the recurring theme. TCU has repeatedly gotten defensive efforts good enough to keep games in reach, but those performances haven’t been enough to turn close games into wins against Power Four competition.
Baylor, meanwhile, is trending in the opposite direction. After opening with a loss to Auburn, the Bears have won four straight and look like a team settling into a clear identity.
Their latest statement came in a 55-19 win at Arizona State. DJ Lagway went 25 of 40 for 306 yards and a career-high four touchdown passes, and he also ran for a score. The Bears’ ground game made noise, too, piling up 244 rushing yards with touchdown runs of 63 and 75 yards.
Gavin Freeman has been a steady target in the passing game. Through five games, he has 42 catches for 479 yards and two touchdowns.
Baylor’s defense has backed it all up by holding every opponent to 19 points or fewer. This is not a team living on offense alone.
That matters for TCU, because Baylor can beat teams in more than one way. The Frogs cannot afford to key entirely on Lagway and assume the rest will fall apart.
The bye week gave Sonny Dykes and his staff time to sort through the offensive issues. Now the answer has to show up on the field. TCU simply cannot keep surviving on one-touchdown performances against Power Four opponents and expect a better result.
The defense should keep the Frogs in it again. The question is whether the offense can finally do enough to match.
A loss would send TCU to 2-4 overall and 0-3 in the Big 12. Baylor would stay unbeaten in conference play.
History does give TCU a reason for confidence. The Frogs have won nine of the last 11 meetings, including a 42-36 victory last year.
Still, the present numbers lean Baylor’s way. If TCU can get to 24 points, its defense could make things interesting. But that’s a target, not a promise.
At this point, TCU doesn’t need another explanation for why the offense should be better. It needs a Saturday when it actually is.
In Other News...
TCU Fans Have A New Reason To Rally Around Thien An Nguyen
Thien An Nguyen is giving TCU plenty to cheer for beyond the usual fall calendar. The Horned Frogs alum and current medical student is competing on season 51 of CBS Survivor, and the school made a point to celebrate her latest appearance with a campus watch party. About 30 family members and friends gathered to watch the episode together, turning the evening into a small but meaningful show of support for one of their own.
Nguyen said she appreciated the backing and the chance to share the viewing experience with people who have been rooting for her. For TCU fans, it adds a new kind of storyline to follow, one that stretches far beyond Fort Worth and gives the campus a connection to one of televisions most enduring competition shows. [Read more 🡒]
Baylor Has A Real Chance To Pull Away From TCU Again
Baylor comes out of a bye week with a chance to put some real distance between itself and TCU in the rivalry race, and the setup is favorable for the Bears at home after a strong previous win. The Horned Frogs, meanwhile, are trying to steady an offense that has been inconsistent for weeks, and the trip to Waco arrives with enough concern up front to make the matchup feel even tougher on the road.
For TCU, the challenge is as much about survival as execution. Baylor will be watching closely to see whether its quarterback can keep the offense on schedule, while the other side of the ball is focused on getting consistent pressure on the Horned Frogs quarterback and creating takeaways. If TCU cannot protect the pocket and clean up its recent offensive issues, Baylor has a clear path to turn this into another frustrating afternoon for the Frogs. [Read more 🡒]
Baylor Faces Its First Real Big 12 Test Against TCU
Baylors trip to Fort Worth lands at an important spot on the Big 12 calendar, with both programs trying to sort out where they really stand in a conference that has already started to separate into tiers. The Bears are getting their first real test against TCU, and for the Horned Frogs it is the kind of matchup that can tell them whether they are ready to climb back into the league race or still have more ground to make up.
TCU enters with little room for error after an uneven start to conference play, and this one carries more than just the usual rivalry edge. A strong showing would give the Horned Frogs a needed boost in both confidence and standing, while a setback would only deepen the pressure as the Big 12 schedule moves deeper into October. [Read more 🡒]