Seven weeks out from kickoff, TCU’s place in the Big 12 conversation looks familiar: somewhere in the middle, with enough talent to matter and enough uncertainty to keep people guessing.
ESPN’s Bill Connelly has the Horned Frogs slotted sixth in his 2026 Big 12 college football preview, which fits the pattern the program has followed in recent preseason projections. The Frogs have spent the last few years bouncing around the expectations game, and the rankings have not exactly been a reliable road map for where they end up when the dust settles in December.
That was true in 2024, when CBS Sports’ Shehan Jeyarajah put TCU 10th in the Big 12 power rankings. The placement looked harsh at the time, especially coming off a 5-7 season and a national championship appearance the year before.
The quarterback situation was unsettled, Josh Hoover appeared to be in line for the job, and there was still plenty of doubt about whether the 2022 run had been a one-off. In the end, the preseason call missed badly.
TCU climbed all the way to fifth in the league.
The biggest leap in the conference belonged to Arizona State, which started near the bottom at No. 16 in Jeyarajah’s rankings and went on to win the Big 12 Championship and reach the College Football Playoff. Colorado also outperformed its preseason spot, entering at No. 11 and finishing fourth despite having future Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter and quarterback Shedeur Sanders back in the fold.
TCU’s next preseason treatment came in ESPN’s 2025 Big 12 Football Preview, where the Horned Frogs were projected to finish fourth. That was a respectable bump after the bounce-back year, and it reflected the way the program had re-entered the league’s upper tier.
Arizona State and Texas Tech also got that kind of preseason respect. But the Frogs didn’t stay there.
They finished seventh, while Kansas State suffered one of the conference’s biggest slides, going from a projected top-three team to 10th.
Now the Frogs are back in that familiar middle lane at sixth, with Texas Tech, BYU, Utah, Kansas State and Arizona sitting ahead of them in Connelly’s preview. That setup leaves plenty of room for movement, which is exactly what the Big 12 tends to deliver.
The league has built its reputation on unpredictability, and the format only adds to it. With the top two teams advancing to the championship game, the season has a way of rewarding the teams that catch fire at the right time. Arizona State’s rise in 2024 was the clearest example yet: a team picked near the bottom made the climb and won the whole thing.
For TCU, the lesson is pretty simple. The preseason numbers have not lined up with the final standings over the last four seasons, and Sonny Dykes’ team has often looked better when it has something to prove. That makes a sixth-place ranking less like a verdict and more like a challenge.
With a wave of new head coaches entering the Big 12, the conference figures to produce another round of surprises. That can help the Frogs or hurt them. Either way, the league is heading into 2026 with the same old trait: more questions than answers.
Seven weeks from kickoff, TCU’s real statement still has to come on the field. The rankings are just the opening snapshot.
In Other News...
Why TCU Fans Suddenly Can't Ignore Dozie Ezukanma anymore
With fall camp set to open July 29, TCU is heading into the stretch run of its offseason with a roster that still looks sturdy after back-to-back 9-4 finishes. The Horned Frogs have some important pieces to replace, but they also have enough returning talent to believe the 2026 opener against North Carolina can be the start of another competitive year in Fort Worth.
One of the names drawing more attention now is Dozie Ezukanma, the redshirt sophomore receiver who turned a strong spring into a place among TCUs top 30 impact players. He is expected to be part of the offense in a bigger way this fall, and with the staff looking for reliable production at receiver, his next step could matter as much as any position battle when camp begins. [Read more 🡒]
TCUs Offensive Line Just Became The Biggest Question In The Big 12
The Big 12 offensive line conversation this summer has been shaped by continuity at the top, with Cincinnati, BYU and Houston drawing praise for bringing back established cores, while other programs are still trying to patch together new fronts through the transfer portal. TCU fits into that middle tier of the discussion, where the Horned Frogs are not being treated like a finished product but also not as a unit without a path forward.
There is at least a case for optimism in Fort Worth, especially with the line now tied to new offensive coordinator Gordon Sammis, who arrives from UConn with a chance to help lift the group back toward a more familiar standard. The question for TCU is whether the pieces can come together quickly enough to make that jump, because in a league where protection and run-game stability can change everything, the difference between solid and special is often decided before September settles in. [Read more 🡒]