The Big 12 enters 2026 with the same old problem for everyone else and the same old advantage for the league: nothing ever stays settled for long. Since the conference expanded to 16 teams, four different programs have already played for the championship in Arlington, and six different schools have claimed the title since 2020. So while Texas Tech opens as the clear team to beat, the rest of the race already feels like a moving target.
Texas Tech sits on top after a 2025 run that checked every box. The Red Raiders won eight of their nine conference games by multiple scores, rolled into the College Football Playoff, and did it behind what was described as one of the best defenses in conference history. That surge also landed them their highest preseason AP ranking since 1977.
BYU looks like the most legitimate threat. Kalani Sitake’s team already got to last year’s title game, and it brings back quarterback Bear Bachmeier with a year in the offense.
The Cougars also rank near the top nationally in returning production, with key names like RB LJ Martin, S Faletau Satuala, and LB Isaiah Glasker back in the mix. They’re still chasing their first conference championship since 2007.
Houston is the sneaky name sitting right behind that top tier. Willie Fritz has turned the Cougars into one of the league’s most reliable programs, and after a 10-win season that didn’t get nearly enough attention, they’re being picked by plenty of people as the dark-horse team most likely to push Texas Tech and BYU.
Utah is entering a new chapter with Morgan Scalley replacing longtime coach Kyle Whittingham. The Utes do keep 2025 Big 12 Offensive Newcomer of the Year Devon Dampier at quarterback, but they lost all five starting offensive linemen, which is a brutal amount of turnover in one place. The talent is still there, but the article makes clear that kind of continuity loss is never clean, and Utah drops a bit after a spring that brought some regression.
TCU is another team that has enough talent to matter. Sonny Dykes has the Horned Frogs in position to compete again, but they still have to prove it on the field after just missing the AP Preseason Top 25.
Arizona has a roster good enough to make noise, but everything hinges on Noah Fifita. Two of the Wildcats’ losses last season came against top-five teams in the league, so the margin for error is slim.
Arizona State is also still in the conversation. The Sun Devils lose star quarterback Sam Leavitt, who was the nation’s highest-ranked transfer, but they still return enough talent to stay in the mix in a conference that doesn’t offer many easy weeks.
There’s a fresh start in Stillwater, where Eric Morris takes over a Cowboys team that bottomed out. Oklahoma State went winless in Big 12 play for a second straight year and lost 64 players to the transfer portal. Even so, the rebuild includes major additions such as quarterback Drew Mestemaker, who led the nation in passing yards, along with RB Caleb Hawkins and WR Wyatt Young.
Baylor’s outlook is tied to upside and uncertainty. Dave Aranda remains under pressure, but the Bears bring back four starters from a defense that struggled last season, and the arrival of Florida transfer quarterback DJ Lagway gives them real potential if he reaches his ceiling.
UCF is still waiting for the season that turns it into a steady Big 12 threat. Year two under Scott Frost brings another chance to get there.
West Virginia should be better with Rich Rodriguez back for year two in Morgantown. Transfer quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. and running back Cam Cook give the Mountaineers some needed juice, and that could help them take a step forward.
Kansas has one of the more interesting setups in the league with Andy Kotelnicki back as offensive coordinator under Lance Leipold. That move is a big plus after back-to-back losing seasons, but the quarterback competition between Cole Ballard and Isaiah Marshall still needs to be sorted out, and a defense that allowed nearly 27 points per game has to improve.
Cincinnati has enough pieces to sit around .500 in league play, with the chance to go higher if the offense settles in.
Colorado is still rebuilding, and the offense and defense will both help decide how high the Buffaloes can climb.
Iowa State enters the season in the toughest spot of anyone. Matt Campbell left for Penn State and took much of the roster with him, including quarterback Rocco Becht. The Cyclones lost roughly 55 players to the transfer portal, and in year one the ceiling is hard to pin down while the floor could be very low.
That’s the Big 12 in a nutshell: Texas Tech starts as the favorite, BYU and Houston are right there, and Utah, TCU, Arizona, Arizona State and the rest all have a shot to scramble the picture. If the recent history of this league has taught anything, it’s that preseason order rarely survives long.
In the Big 12, chaos isn’t a possibility. It’s the baseline.
In Other News...
TCUs 2026 Hype Comes Down To Jaden Craig And One Big Question
TCUs 2026 outlook has a familiar Sonny Dykes feel to it: plenty of reasons to like the roster, plenty of reasons to keep the brakes on the hype. The Horned Frogs have talent in the receiver group, questions along the offensive line, and a defense that still has room to define itself, but the conversation keeps circling back to the middle of the field and the leadership pieces that can steady everything else. Max Carroll figures to be a central presence for the linebackers, giving that unit a needed voice as it takes shape.
The biggest reason for optimism, and the biggest thing left to sort out, is Jaden Craig. His operation in camp has already hinted at a quarterback who can make the offense hum in tight spaces, which is exactly why the rest of the passing game matters so much. TCU can see the outline of something promising for 2026, but whether it turns into a real push will depend on how quickly Craig and the Frogs answer the one question that still hangs over the whole plan. [Read more 🡒]