TCU opens its season in one of Week 0’s showcase spots, and the Horned Frogs are stepping into Dublin as the favorite against North Carolina at 11 a.m. Saturday on ESPN.
On paper, it looks like a chance for TCU to back up the 48-14 beatdown it delivered in Chapel Hill last year. But the setup has enough wrinkles to keep this from feeling routine.
North Carolina is dealing with a lot of moving parts, including life without defensive coordinator Steve Belichick and a quarterback room now leaning on a journeyman to help fix an offense that was among the worst in Power Four football a year ago. Even so, the matchup still carries upset potential, especially with rain in the forecast and the game landing in the kind of environment that has produced surprises before.
TCU has some clear advantages, starting with how much of its core is back. In the portal era, continuity is a weapon, and the Horned Frogs have kept enough key pieces in place to matter.
Yes, they have to replace stars like Josh Hoover, Eric McAlister and Bud Clark, but they still bring back preseason All-Big 12 safety Jamel Johnson, defensive linemen Paul Oyewale and Markis Deal, and last season’s second-leading receiver Jordan Dwyer. Gil Jackson and Max Carroll are also part of the group that has spent multiple years in the program and is now ready for bigger roles.
North Carolina had to rebuild its roster. TCU did not.
That stability shows up best on defense, where the Horned Frogs were strongest against the run last season, finishing fifth in the Big 12 in rushing yards allowed per game. They expect to be even better there now, with most of last year’s two-deep back.
Oyewale, Deal, senior defensive tackle Ansel Din-Mbuh and junior hybrid defensive end/linebacker Zach Chapman give TCU a front with experience and punch, though Chapman’s status for Saturday is still unclear. Sonny Dykes also believes the group came out of camp more physical after working against the new offense.
If TCU can force North Carolina into a one-dimensional game again, that’s a major edge.
The Horned Frogs also like where their offense is headed under Gordon Sammis. The new scheme is supposed to be more balanced, more physical and more efficient, and the weather could push that approach right into the spotlight.
With rain possible, TCU may need to lean heavily on junior Jeremy Payne and sophomore Jon Denman in the backfield. Both are viewed as capable of having big seasons, and this might turn into the kind of night where the Frogs need to hand it off more than 30 times.
Sammis is comfortable with that. TCU proved last year it can win that way too, when it ran for 258 yards on 35 carries and averaged 7.4 yards per rush.
Another outing like that would put the Frogs in good shape.
North Carolina has its own path to making this interesting, and it starts with Bobby Petrino. He joined Belichick’s staff this offseason after helping Arkansas produce one of the country’s most productive offenses last year.
The Tar Heels do not have that same kind of firepower, but sophomore running back Demon June and junior wide receiver Jordan Shipp give Petrino pieces to build around. Sixth-year quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. has not been a superstar during his time at Maryland and Wisconsin, though injuries have been part of that story, and now he gets the benefit of working with one of the sport’s most respected quarterback minds.
If anyone can squeeze more production out of this group, it’s Petrino.
Still, the biggest question on the TCU side may be Jaden Craig. The new Horned Frogs quarterback is making his first start at the P4 level, which naturally brings some uncertainty.
He was highly productive at Harvard and has NFL-caliber traits with his size, mobility and arm strength, but North Carolina is still a significant jump in competition even after a 4-8 season. The weather could make that adjustment harder.
Rain and a slick field would complicate things in the pocket and could limit Craig’s ability to extend plays, which is exactly the kind of opening the Tar Heels would need to keep this tight late.
And then there’s the setting itself. The Aer Lingus Classic has developed a pattern lately, with rainy conditions and underdogs finding ways to punch above their weight.
Iowa State beat higher-ranked Kansas State last year. In 2024, Georgia Tech stunned Florida State.
In 2022, Northwestern did the same to Nebraska. That recent history is enough to make TCU pay attention.
Dublin has seen enough surprises to remind the Horned Frogs that being the favorite does not guarantee anything.
In Other News...
TCU Fans Turned This Trip Into Something Bigger Than A Game
A sizable contingent of TCU supporters made the trip to Dublin, turning the Horned Frogs season opener against North Carolina into more than just a football game. What began for some as a hard sell, giving up a home date for an overseas showcase, quickly became an opportunity to see the program carried onto an international stage, with fans talking about how meaningful it was to watch TCU represent itself abroad.
The trip also carried a familiar football edge, because plenty of those same fans were eager to see what the new quarterback and offensive coordinator could do in the opener. Between the travel, the setting and the chance to size up a new-look offense, the game felt like a season launch and a school-wide excursion rolled into one, and the mood around the buildup suggested the Frogs had already won something before kickoff. [Read more 🡒]
TCU Faces Rising Tension As Jaden Craig Enters A Very Different Offense
TCUs offense is headed into a new phase under a regime that looks far different from the one Horned Frogs fans have been used to, and quarterback Jaden Craig sits right in the middle of the conversation. The system he is walking into is expected to lean more on the run and carry a pro-style feel, the kind of structure Sonny Dykes once used at Cal, which should give the staff a familiar blueprint even as it asks Craig to adjust quickly to the speed and physicality of the Big 12 after coming from the Ivy League.
The questions around him are straightforward enough: how smoothly does he make that jump, and can the offensive line give him enough protection while the scheme settles in? Those football concerns have been joined by a separate distraction around the program after Jacob Fields was dismissed, then a local media controversy followed the universitys handling of coverage, adding another layer of tension to a stretch already marked by change and scrutiny. [Read more 🡒]
Former TCU Lineman Opens Up On Footballs Fear That Still Lingers
The latest findings on CTE have put footballs long-running brain injury debate back in the spotlight, and former TCU lineman Marshall Newhouse is among those thinking about what the game asks of its players. A recent study in The BMJ examined the brains of 338 deceased former NFL players who died between 2016 and 2021, and found that nearly a quarter had CTE neuropathology at death, another reminder of how serious the issue remains even as awareness has grown.
Newhouses reflections come at a time when the sport is still trying to balance its violent nature with safer techniques and better education about head trauma. The 2015 film Concussion helped push CTE into the public conversation, but the concern has hardly faded, and for players who lived through the games more old-school eras, the fear can still linger long after the final snap. [Read more 🡒]