The TCU Horned Frogs are riding high after their thrilling upset over Ohio State in the First Round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. But the road doesn't get any easier as they face the tournament’s top overall seed, No.
1 Duke, in the Round of 32. Duke narrowly avoided a historic upset themselves, clawing back from a 13-point deficit in the second half to edge out No. 16-seed Siena with a 71-65 victory.
The Blue Devils, ACC Champions, didn’t quite live up to the 28.5-point favorite tag, but they did what was necessary to move on.
TCU, initially a 2.5-point underdog against Ohio State, managed to secure a 66-64 win after leading by 15 at halftime. This victory came in a game that fell short of the 145.5-point total projection.
Now, the question is whether TCU can continue their Cinderella run in what will essentially be a road game in Greenville, South Carolina. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, the odds are stacked against the Horned Frogs making it to the Sweet Sixteen for the first time in their history.
The Horned Frogs have shown resilience as a double-digit underdog this season, boasting a 2-0 record against the spread in such situations. They pulled off an outright win over Florida as an 11.5-point underdog and kept it close against BYU, losing by just six as a 13.5-point underdog.
TCU is no stranger to top-tier competition, having faced three other No. 1-seed caliber teams this season. They went 2-1 against the spread, including a notable upset over the defending champion Gators.
Duke, despite dealing with injuries to key players Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba, remains a formidable opponent. The Horned Frogs will need to find a way to contain Cameron Boozer, a frontrunner for National Player of the Year and a top NBA Draft prospect.
Boozer put up 22 points and 13 rebounds in Duke’s win over Siena, while his brother Cayden has admirably filled the gap left by Foster's injury. Even with their shaky start, Duke is still favored to win the National Championship at +500, while TCU, despite improved odds, remains a longshot at +35,000.
As TCU looks to defy the odds and continue their magical run, all eyes will be on this intriguing matchup. Can the Horned Frogs keep the dream alive, or will Duke prove too strong a hurdle? Only time will tell, but one thing’s for sure: March Madness is living up to its name.