TCU and Kansas head into Saturday’s matchup at Amon G. Carter Stadium with the same basic problem: both teams are 3-4, both are 1-3 in Big 12 play, and both are staring at a November slate that can get ugly fast.
Kickoff is set for 2:30 p.m. Saturday on FS1.
For the Horned Frogs, the last week offered another reminder of how thin the margin has become. TCU dropped a 24-20 decision to West Virginia, leaving the program at 1-4 against Power 4 conference teams. Kansas arrives with a bit more confidence after edging Baylor 25-24 for its first win against a P4 opponent.
That sets up a game with bowl eligibility hanging in the balance and very little room for error. The winner gets to exhale a little. The loser could be headed for a rough rest of the weekend - and a rougher stretch after that.
Here are three reasons TCU can recover, and three reasons Kansas can leave Fort Worth with another loss for the Frogs.
Three reasons TCU will defeat Kansas
1. The defense should have the edge again
TCU’s defense gave up a season-high 24 points against West Virginia, but the unit still sits No. 1 in the Big 12 and No. 6 nationally in scoring defense. Kansas does not bring the same kind of tempo or spread-option stress that West Virginia did, which matters here.
The Jayhawks are averaging just 22 points against Power 4 conference teams, and TCU has a real chance to keep them below 20. If the Frogs can drag Kansas down toward its season average of 13.6 points, the path to a win gets a lot clearer.
2. The receivers can still carry the offense
TCU’s offense has had its problems, but the wideouts and tight end group have not been the issue. Sophomore slot receiver Ed Small and junior tight end Kari Ashley both sit in the Big 12’s top 10 in receiving yards.
Ashley is also one of the nation’s leading tight ends in yardage. Senior receiver Jordan Dwyer has already topped 100 yards in three of his four games this season.
Kansas does allow the third-fewest passing yards in the conference, so this is not a soft landing spot. Even so, TCU should like its chances to create production through the air.
3. The Frogs need to play like it means something
TCU has to bring a much sharper edge than it showed last week. The bowl picture is getting tighter by the day, and it is not hard to imagine the Frogs dropping all four November games with three ranked opponents and Kansas State still looming.
Saturday looks like a must-handle game, especially against a Kansas team that is dealing with the same kind of pressure.
Three reasons Kansas will upset TCU
1. The running back injuries complicate TCU’s chance to attack Kansas’ weakness
Kansas has the worst rushing defense in the Big 12, allowing 166.9 yards per game. Under normal circumstances, that would seem like a chance for TCU to lean on the ground game.
But the Frogs are not in normal shape.
Junior running back Jeremy Payne and senior Joe Pitchford were ruled out for Saturday, while sixth-year back Landon Walker is questionable. That leaves TCU thin at the position, with sophomore Jon Denman likely carrying a bigger load and two true freshmen potentially involved.
Even with a healthy backfield, TCU has struggled to run the ball. If the Frogs cannot exploit Kansas’ weakness, the Jayhawks have a chance to turn this into a grind and hold TCU under 120 rushing yards.
2. Leroy Harris III can wreck the game up front
TCU’s offensive line has been one of the most disappointing units in the Big 12, and the Frogs rank last in the league in rushing offense. The program made a change earlier this week, parting ways with offensive line coach A.J.
Ricker, and there is hope that move can spark the front.
But Kansas brings one of the conference’s most disruptive edge defenders in Leroy Harris III. He ranks second in tackles for loss and is tied for seventh in sacks. Harris matches up with the kind of edge pressure TCU has struggled to handle all season, and he has the ability to take over the game.
3. Isaiah Marshall gives Kansas a path
Mobile quarterbacks have been a problem for defenses all season, and TCU is about to face another one in sophomore Isaiah Marshall. Marshall is not as dynamic as West Virginia’s Michael Hawkins Jr., but he has a similar skill set.
Hawkins finished with 166 total yards - 79 passing and 87 rushing - yet still accounted for three touchdowns in the Mountaineers’ win. Marshall will probably need closer to 250 total yards if Kansas wants to pull the upset, but he should get opportunities against a TCU offense that has struggled to stay on the field and control games.
Kansas also has running back Dylan Edwards available as another option. If the Jayhawks start by leaning into Marshall’s legs, they have a clear blueprint for an upset.
In Other News...
Kansas Faces A Road Test With One Huge Question Hanging Over It
A late-October trip to Fort Worth brings Kansas into a matchup that feels like a turning point for both programs, with the Jayhawks and TCU each sitting at 3-4 heading into their meeting at Amon G. Carter Stadium on Oct. 31, 2026. The Horned Frogs are also navigating some recent roster and staff turbulence after parting ways with offensive line coach A.J. Ricker, adding another layer of uncertainty to a game that already has plenty at stake for both sides.
TCUs availability report does not make the picture any clearer, especially with the backfield thinned out and Kansas still watching the status of quarterback Isaiah Marshall. If Marshall is available, the Jayhawks at least have a chance to lean into a familiar offensive identity on the road. If he is not, the margin for error gets even smaller in a game where both teams badly need to steady themselves before November. [Read more 🡒]
TCU Faces A Home Test That Could Define Its Finish
TCU heads into the stretch run with a little room left for error, but not much. At 3-4 overall and 1-3 in Big 12 play, the Horned Frogs have five games left to try to steady a season that still has something tangible to chase, and the next one at home against Kansas feels like a natural pivot point. It is the kind of game that can either help calm the conversation around the program or leave the rest of the month feeling even heavier.
The matchup has also drawn a familiar round of prediction talk around the staff, with most leaning toward the Frogs in Fort Worth. That kind of confidence does not win games, of course, but it does reflect the sense that this is the type of home opportunity TCU needs to take advantage of if it wants the back half of the schedule to mean more than just getting through it. [Read more 🡒]
TCU Gets A Big Opening As Kansas Brings Quarterback Uncertainty
Kansas is heading into Saturdays 2:30 p.m. CT meeting with TCU with some uncertainty under center, and that matters for a Horned Frogs defense trying to sort out what kind of challenge it will face on FS1. Isaiah Marshall is listed as questionable because of an injury, leaving the Jayhawks in a bit of limbo at the most important spot on the field.
If Marshall cant go, Cole Ballard is the expected option, even though he has spent significant time this season working back from a shoulder injury. For TCU, the situation could affect how Kansas approaches the game from the start, and it adds another layer of intrigue to a matchup that already carries plenty of weight for the Horned Frogs. [Read more 🡒]