TCU comes out of its bye week with plenty to clean up, and the assignment doesn’t get any easier: a trip to Waco to face Baylor at 6 p.m. Saturday on FS1.
The Horned Frogs are trying to stop a two-game skid after a slow start that has left them at 2-3 overall and 0-2 in the Big 12. Baylor, on the other hand, has spent the fall building momentum.
The Bears are 4-1 and 2-0 in conference play, riding a four-game winning streak and looking like one of the most improved teams in the country. They’re also a failed 2-point conversion away from being undefeated and probably sitting in the Top 25.
That sets up a tricky spot for TCU, which has beaten itself at key moments this season. The Frogs’ losses have all come by one score, and the mistakes have been hard to miss.
Still, this rivalry has gone TCU’s way more often than not. The Horned Frogs have won nine of the last 11 meetings and are 3-1 under Sonny Dykes.
Here’s a closer look at Baylor before the matchup.
Baylor made a big swing at quarterback in the offseason after losing the Big 12’s passing leader from last year, Sawyer Robertson. The answer was DJ Lagway, a former five-star recruit from Florida and one of the most highly decorated quarterbacks to come out of Texas after starring at Willis High School, about an hour from Houston.
Lagway’s time in Gainesville came with plenty of turbulence. Injuries, confidence issues and questionable offensive schemes all played a part, and he finished his Florida career with 28 touchdowns and 23 interceptions across two seasons.
His start at Baylor hasn’t been perfect either, and he’s already missed two games this season. But the Bears clearly value more than just the numbers.
Lagway drew respect for pushing through injuries and nearly sparking a comeback against Auburn in Week 1. So far this season, he has 860 passing yards, eight touchdowns and two interceptions while completing 53.4% of his throws.
He’s also coming off what may have been his best performance yet, or at least the best of the year: 306 yards, four touchdowns and a 92.5 rating in ESPN’s QBR metric during Baylor’s 55-19 win at Arizona State.
If there’s been a bigger surprise for Baylor than Lagway’s arrival, it’s the defense. Dave Aranda entered the season under pressure after last year’s unit cratered, finishing 122nd nationally in scoring defense at 32.6 points allowed per game. Aranda responded by hiring former Kansas State defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman, and the change has been immediate.
Baylor is now 12th in the country in scoring defense, giving up just 14.2 points per game. The Bears haven’t let anyone top 20 points, even in games against Auburn, Colorado and Arizona State.
Their calling card has been the run defense, which ranks fifth in the Big 12 at 97.4 rushing yards allowed per game. They’re also second in sacks and pass defense efficiency.
The roster may not match BYU’s talent-wise, but it’s still a difficult test for a TCU offense that has struggled to get out of its own way.
On offense, Baylor’s most dangerous weapon hasn’t been Lagway or backup quarterback Nate Bennett. It’s been senior receiver Gavin Freeman, the 5-foot-9 Oklahoma State transfer who has become the engine of the passing game.
Freeman leads the Bears with 42 catches for 479 yards and two touchdowns, and he needs only three more yards to set a new career high. Baylor doesn’t have another receiver with more than 15 receptions, which tells you how much runs through him. His biggest games have come against Power Four opponents, including 12 catches for 154 yards and a touchdown against Auburn and seven grabs for 115 yards against Arizona State.
TCU has already dealt with talented pass catchers this season, including North Carolina’s Jordan Shipp and BYU’s Legend Glasker. Freeman presents a different kind of challenge, though.
He works the middle of the field and should force the Horned Frogs’ safeties to stay busy. He’s expected to draw plenty of attention and could see double-digit targets.
Baylor’s pressure package adds another layer. The Bears are getting to quarterbacks with variety, not just one or two star pass rushers. In fact, their top two sack leaders are safeties Daniel Cobbs and Bo Onu, who each have three.
That’s not a typo, and it speaks to how creatively Klanderman is deploying his defense. The front seven has plenty of contributors, too, with seven linemen recording sacks so far. Garrick Ponder, Jordan Mack and Devonte Tezino each have two.
A couple more names matter here as well: linebacker Travion Barnes, Baylor’s leading tackler, and cornerback LeVar Thornton Jr., a Fort Worth native who played at Keller Timber Creek before becoming the Bears’ top cover corner. At 6-3, Thornton has given Baylor another important piece on the back end.
Most of these players were already in Waco last year. The difference now is how well Klanderman has been able to squeeze production out of the group.
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