Kansas State heads to Fort Worth on Saturday still searching for answers, and the biggest one is at quarterback. The Wildcats, 4-5 overall and 1-5 in Big 12 play, go into Week 11 after a 66-28 beating from Oklahoma State and have now dropped three straight.
TCU, also 4-5 but 2-4 in the league, comes in off a one-point loss to Arizona and opened as a 9.5-point favorite for the matchup at Amon G. Carter Stadium.
Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. CT on ESPNU, and both teams are staring at the same basic math: they need two wins in their final three games to get bowl eligible.
For Kansas State, that climb gets harder because the quarterback situation remains unsettled. The Wildcats have used four different players under center in four straight games, Avery Johnson’s status is still up in the air, and Blake Barnett made his first career start against Oklahoma State.
TCU is expected to have Jaden Craig leading the offense, and the Horned Frogs may have a chance to lean on the ground game if they want to attack Kansas State’s biggest weakness. The Wildcats have been gashed for 172 rushing yards per game, second-worst in the Big 12. TCU hasn’t been much better running the ball, though, and there’s another wrinkle to watch: starting running back Jeremy Payne practiced this week for the first time in a month.
The matchup comes with plenty of skepticism around the Horned Frogs’ offense. They rank outside the Top 100 in FBS in turnover margin, and their offense sits 107th in FBS in yards per play. That’s a big reason the spread looks tempting from Kansas State’s side, even with the Wildcats’ own issues.
Prediction: TCU 24, Kansas State 17
Pick against the spread: Kansas State +10.5
Both teams have been below .500 against the spread this season, but the call here is that Kansas State keeps it closer than the number suggests. The Wildcats were embarrassed last week, but the belief is they can respond well enough to stay inside the double-digit line. TCU’s inconsistency and lack of production on offense make it tough to trust them to cover a number this large.
In Other News...
TCUs Undefeated Start Suddenly Comes With A Real Concern
TCU kept its undefeated start intact with a 100-92 double-overtime win over UL Monroe, but the game came with a sharper edge than the record suggests. Micah Robinson delivered a career-high 27 points and helped carry the Horned Frogs through a night that demanded far more than a routine nonconference finish, with the outcome still hanging deep into the second extra period.
Jamie Dixon and several players pointed to the late-game execution that finally separated TCU from a stubborn opponent, and that is where the real concern begins to surface. The Horned Frogs found a way to win, but a game like this also leaves a reminder that the margin for error shrinks quickly once the competition tightens, and TCU will have to clean up the details if it wants the unbeaten run to mean more than just a clean record. [Read more 🡒]
TCU Is Rallying Around Ed Small After A Brutal Moment
TCU spent the days after its loss to Arizona trying to turn the page, but the conversation around the program kept circling back to sophomore wide receiver Ed Small. The critical onside kick recovery error became one of the defining moments of the defeat, yet coach Sonny Dykes and teammates have made clear they are not letting one play define a player they value for much more than a single snap.
As the Horned Frogs prepare for Kansas State, the message inside the building has been about support and response rather than blame. Smalls teammates have rallied around him, pointing to his character and the work he has put in, and TCU now faces the familiar challenge of carrying a difficult moment forward without letting it linger into the next game. [Read more 🡒]
Baylors Season Suddenly Feels Very Different Under Joe Klanderman
With three weeks left in the Big 12 regular season, the league picture is starting to sharpen, and Baylor has quietly become one of the more interesting teams in it. Under interim coach Joe Klanderman, the Bears have won two straight, locked up a bowl berth and suddenly look far more stable than they did a few weeks ago, a notable turn in a conference where Utah is still unbeaten and six Big 12 teams are sitting in the College Football Playoff rankings top 25.
The broader league race has only added to the intrigue, especially with Oklahoma State quarterback Drew Mestemaker putting together a historic performance that has NFL scouts paying close attention even as his future in Stillwater remains uncertain. For TCU, fresh off a loss to Arizona and bracing for possible changes in the coaching staff or roster, Baylors surge is another reminder of how quickly the balance can shift in the Big 12, and how much can still change before the season is over. [Read more 🡒]