Baylor’s bowl picture got a lot murkier after Saturday’s 17-6 loss to TCU, with one national outlet dropping the Bears out of postseason consideration entirely.
The defeat ended Baylor’s four-game winning streak and left the Bears at 4-2 overall and 2-1 in Big 12 play. It also came on an off night for the offense.
Baylor followed up a 55-point showing against Arizona State before its bye with just 310 total yards against the Horned Frogs, including only 54 rushing yards. Even with TCU held to 33 rushing yards, the Bears never found the end zone.
Now Baylor needs two more wins with six games still to play to get to the six-victory mark generally needed for bowl eligibility.
Most projections still have the Bears headed somewhere in December or January, but the destinations have shifted after Week 7.
ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura now sends Baylor to Memphis for the Liberty Bowl on Jan. 2 against Missouri. That’s a change from his previous projection of a Pop-Tarts Bowl matchup with Pittsburgh.
ESPN’s Mark Schlabach also has Baylor meeting Missouri, though he places that game in the Texas Bowl on Dec. 31 in Houston. Schlabach had previously slotted the Bears against Florida in the Liberty Bowl.
Missouri is the most common opponent for Baylor in this week’s projections, and a meeting there would give the Bears a shot at an SEC opponent after working through a demanding Big 12 slate.
On3’s Brett McMurphy also keeps Baylor in the Liberty Bowl, but with a different opponent. His latest projection has the Bears facing South Carolina on Jan. 2 in Memphis, replacing his earlier Texas Bowl pick of Mississippi State.
College Football News goes in another direction, projecting Baylor against Boise State in the Independence Bowl on Dec. 22 in Shreveport, Louisiana. That’s a switch from its earlier prediction of Navy in the Armed Forces Bowl. The two programs last played in the 2016 Cactus Bowl, when Baylor beat Boise State 31-12 in Phoenix under interim head coach Jim Grobe.
Boise State’s postseason track record makes that matchup a notable one, including a College Football Playoff appearance following the 2024 season. It would also send Baylor outside Texas after back-to-back projections had the Bears in Fort Worth.
Athlon Sports’ Steven Lassan is the lone outlier this week. He no longer has Baylor in a bowl at all, moving Memphis to face Air Force and leaving the Bears on the outside looking in. He had previously projected Baylor against Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl on Dec. 23 in Fort Worth.
That omission stands out because Baylor was in all five projections a week ago, when it owned a 4-1 record. After the TCU loss and with tough games still ahead, the Bears do not have much margin left.
Baylor heads to Kansas on Saturday, then visits UCF on Oct. 30 and hosts Iowa State on Nov. 7.
After that comes a closing stretch against ranked BYU, Texas Tech and Houston. Winning two of the next three would lock up bowl eligibility before that tougher finish arrives.
In Other News...
TCUs Kansas Matchup Could Shape The Frogs November Momentum
TCU gets another chance to carry some momentum into November after its win over Baylor, and the next step comes with a familiar Big 12 measuring stick in Kansas. The matchup has both teams looking to steady themselves after different weekends, with the Frogs trying to build on a needed conference victory and Kansas coming off a loss to Kansas State.
The setting adds to the intrigue, with the game landing in Fort Worth in a window that should put plenty of attention on how TCU handles the next stretch of its season. Kansas has been one of the more interesting opponents on the schedule for the Frogs under Sonny Dykes, which gives this one a little extra edge as TCU tries to turn one good result into something bigger. [Read more 🡒]
Dave Aranda's Game Decisions Put Baylor Fans On Edge Against TCU
Baylor had the kind of defensive effort that usually gives a home crowd a chance to settle in and believe, but the offense never found its footing in a 17-6 loss to TCU. The Bears were held out of the end zone for the first time this season, and the frustration around the stadium kept building as the game wore on and the scoreboard stayed stubbornly low.
What made the defeat sting for Baylor fans was the sense that the game plan never adjusted to the reality unfolding on the field. There were questions about the way DJ Lagway was used, especially with his limited mobility, and the offense leaned too heavily on long-developing routes while the running game faded from the second half. Even with the defense holding up, the Bears could not do enough to turn that into a win. [Read more 🡒]