Baylor comes out of its bye week with a rivalry game waiting and plenty of numbers that make the matchup with TCU easy to circle.
The Bears are 5-1 overall and 2-0 in Big 12 play, while TCU sits at 3-2 and 0-2. Baylor has averaged 461 yards per game to TCU’s 405, but the Horned Frogs have been stingier on defense, allowing 255 yards per game compared with Baylor’s 326. On the scoreboard, Baylor is putting up 34.8 points per game, while TCU is at 25.4.
The last meeting went to TCU, which beat Baylor 42-36 on the road in 2025. Overall, TCU leads the series 60-50-5.
That recent result hangs over this one, especially with the way both head coaches are being viewed. Dave Aranda has shown progress this season and has made Baylor competitive, but his overall Baylor record is 40-38 in seven seasons, and he is 2-4 against TCU.
A loss in this game would not sit well with Baylor fans. Sonny Dykes is in a different kind of pressure spot at TCU, where even chants of “Fire Sonny” have been heard from the home crowd.
This game also sets up a strength-on-strength collision up front. Baylor’s defense has been excellent this season, but TCU’s defense has held opponents to just 13.4 points per game, which ranks 15th nationally.
The Horned Frogs have done that with an aggressive approach, leaning on stunts and pre-snap movement that can create gaps if an offense handles it well. Baylor’s offensive line has been dependable in pass protection, though it has not always delivered consistent help in the run game.
On the other side, TCU’s defensive front against Baylor’s offensive line is expected to be one of the key areas to watch.
Baylor returns from the open date looking to push its winning streak to five games and add another Big 12 win when TCU comes to Waco on October 17 at 6:00 PM CT on FS1. The game has been labeled the I-35 Revivalry, the Blackout on the Brazos, or simply “the day the Frogs came to town.”
Questions around the matchup are already clear: which defense will control the night, whether DJ Lagway will be used on more designed runs, and whether Baylor can turn in another complete performance like it did against ASU.
In Other News...
TCU Bye Week Exposed One Warning Sign Frogs Can't Ignore
The bye week gave TCU a chance to step back and look around the Big 12, and one scoreline from around the league should have caught its attention. West Virginia piled up 522 yards and stayed on the field for 104 offensive plays, yet still managed only 31 points in a game that quickly turned into a reminder that volume alone does not guarantee control. The Mountaineers leaned on a heavy ground game, with Michael Hawkins Jr., Cam Cook and Amari Latimer helping push the ball for 303 rushing yards, but Arizona kept finding ways to make those drives harder than they should have been.
Arizonas side of the story was the sharper warning sign. The Wildcats got by with just 51 plays because they kept cashing in, and their defense repeatedly flipped the field with ten tackles for loss, two fumble recoveries and stops on five of seven fourth-down tries. Even with missing top receivers, Arizonas quarterback still completed 16 of 23 passes for 341 yards and three touchdowns, which is the kind of efficiency TCU cannot afford to ignore as it comes out of the break and back into conference play. [Read more 🡒]