With less than two months left in the 2026 MLB regular season, the American League MVP picture has narrowed fast. What looked crowded earlier has settled into a two-player fight, with Yordan Alvarez and Junior Caminero clearly ahead of the pack. Ben Rice, Dillon Dingler and the rest are sitting well back, all north of +3000 in the latest odds.
Right now, Alvarez has the upper hand by a wide margin. He’s listed at -900, and the market is treating him like the clear favorite to take home the award. The Astros’ recent surge only strengthens that case, because Houston is now in first place in the AL West and is favored to reach the postseason.
The numbers backing Alvarez are hard to ignore. He’s hitting .322 with 35 home runs, 86 runs batted in and an OPS of 1.060.
He leads all of MLB in home runs, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS. Even with his limited value as a fielder, the bat has been loud enough to separate him from everyone else in the race.
If Houston gets into the playoffs, it would be a real shock to see Alvarez passed over. There’s also the Triple Crown angle hanging over the race, which would only add to what’s already been a massive season for the Astros slugger. Caminero and Rice are both within reach in the home run chase, but Alvarez still has the edge.
Caminero has done plenty to keep this interesting. The Rays star is hitting .278 with 33 home runs and an OPS of .916, which is a strong season by any measure. But outside of the home run column, his case doesn’t stack up next to Alvarez’s.
For Caminero to make this a true race, he’d need Alvarez to fade badly over the final stretch and voters would have to lean harder than usual on team success. The Rays are the best team in the American League, but Caminero still needs to overtake Alvarez in homers to have a realistic shot. He has gone deep five times in his last 23 games, though, and he’ll need that pace to pick up if he wants to close the gap before September arrives.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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