The Tampa Bay Rays have had a relatively smooth ride this offseason - at least so far. While the American League East has seen its fair share of talent influx, the Rays have managed to avoid a worst-case scenario when it comes to superstar free agents landing within the division.
Alex Bregman is headed to the Cubs. Kyle Tucker packed his bags for Los Angeles.
And Bo Bichette? He’s staying in New York, but with the Mets, not the Yankees.
That’s a win for Tampa Bay. Sure, a few big names did slip into the AL East - Pete Alonso joining the Orioles, Ranger Suárez signing with the Red Sox, and Dylan Cease now a Blue Jay - but all things considered, it could’ve been much more damaging.
Now, though, all eyes are on one of the biggest names still on the board: Framber Valdez. And if you’re the Rays, you’re hoping he doesn’t end up in your neighborhood.
Framber Valdez: The AL East’s potential new problem
Valdez has been the model of consistency atop the Astros’ rotation. Since the shortened 2020 season, he’s been in the Cy Young conversation nearly every year and has earned two All-Star nods along the way.
His 2022 campaign was especially memorable - not just because he helped Houston win the World Series, but because of how dominant he was over the long haul. That season, Valdez led the league in batters faced (827), complete games (3), and innings pitched (201.1).
Those numbers don’t just jump off the page - they scream durability and reliability, two traits every contender is desperate to lock down.
While Justin Verlander garnered much of the spotlight that year, Valdez was the steady force that kept Houston’s rotation humming. He might not have the flash of some frontline starters, but year in and year out, he delivers. And that’s exactly the kind of pitcher who commands serious attention - and serious money - in free agency.
Blue Jays and Orioles circling
Reports indicate that both the Blue Jays and Orioles are among the teams showing interest in Valdez. For Tampa Bay, that’s a red flag. Facing Valdez multiple times a year is not a pleasant thought, especially considering how well he’s pitched against the Rays in recent seasons.
Outside of one strange blip in 2022 - when the Rays somehow tagged him for a .360 average - Valdez has absolutely owned Tampa Bay. In two starts since 2023, he’s allowed just six hits and two runs while striking out 18 Rays hitters.
That’s not just effectiveness - that’s dominance. And the team’s on-base percentage against him during those outings?
South of .200. That’s the kind of stuff that makes opposing lineups uncomfortable before they even step into the batter’s box.
Why the fit matters - and why the Rays should be watching closely
Valdez landing in the AL East wouldn’t just be a problem for the Rays - it would tilt the balance of power in a division that’s already stacked with arms. For the Orioles, he’d be a veteran anchor to complement their young, electric rotation. For the Blue Jays, he’d add another layer of left-handed nastiness to a staff that’s already tough to deal with.
But for Tampa Bay, it’s about more than just facing a good pitcher. It’s about facing this pitcher - one who seems to have their number and isn’t afraid to challenge their hitters with a heavy sinker and pinpoint command. That’s a tough matchup in any series, let alone one you might see three or four times a season.
So as the offseason clock ticks and Valdez inches closer to a decision, the Rays - and their fans - will be watching closely. Because if he ends up in the AL East, those battles for a playoff spot just got a whole lot more complicated.