The Yankees may have the label of the American League’s team to beat, but one AL scout is looking past the top seed and pointing straight at Tampa Bay as the club most likely to cause trouble in October.
The logic starts with the path. The scout believes the Yankees and Red Sox will knock each other around in the AL Wild Card Series, draining energy in what should be a tense, three-game fight.
That matchup is already projected to be the one that opens the postseason, and it was the same showdown that unfolded last year at Yankee Stadium. If it goes the distance again, the Rays could be the ones waiting with the fresh legs and the bye.
“I’m taking the Rays thinking maybe the Yankees and Red Sox exhaust themselves a little playing each other in the first round,” the AL scout said.
That’s only part of the case. Tampa Bay spent most of the season sitting in first place in the AL East, with New York chasing closely behind for much of the year. The Rays have been one of the best teams in the majors all season, and the scout singled out both the top of the lineup and the bullpen anchor as reasons to trust them in a playoff race.
“I mean, the Rays have been the best team in the AL all season and I love the top of their order,” the AL scout said. “And I'll take Bryan Baker up against anyone, including Aroldis Chapman. His fastball/changeup combo is great."
The numbers back up that confidence. Junior Caminero has been the headliner, leading the AL with 41 home runs while also ranking fourth in slugging percentage at .526 and fourth in OPS at .888.
He’s also sitting on 97 RBIs, putting him within reach of 100. Jonathan Aranda has given Tampa Bay another dangerous bat, hitting .277/.359/.440 with 22 homers, 26 doubles, 92 RBIs and a .799 OPS in 150 games.
Yandy Díaz, the Rays’ main leadoff option, has posted a .290/.356/.446 line with 22 home runs, 25 doubles, 88 runs scored and an .802 OPS.
Chandler Simpson adds a different kind of pressure at the top, too. As of Sept. 22, he was in the top three in the league in batting average at .309 and tied for the league lead in stolen bases with 46.
Then there’s Bryan Baker, who has emerged as a late-game weapon. He’s got 40 saves and a 1.49 ERA, and the scout’s praise centered on the fastball/changeup mix that has made him one of the league’s most reliable closers.
Tampa Bay will be back in the postseason for the first time since 2023, and that’s why the Rays keep coming up in the same breath as New York. The Yankees might be viewed as the club to beat, but in this scout’s eyes, the Rays are the real threat lurking behind them.
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