Craig Kimbrel’s arrival in Tampa Bay came with more than just a new uniform. The Rays didn’t overhaul the shape of his pitches, but they did change the way he deploys them, and that’s where the real story is.
The biggest shift has come in how Kimbrel works right-handed hitters. While he was with the Mets, his four-seamer was the backbone of the plan, used 81.3% of the time against righties.
With the Rays, that number has dropped to 67.3%. He’s also mixed in a two-seamer 5.1% of the time, something he wasn’t doing before.
At the same time, his sweeper usage against righties has jumped from 11.3% to 23.5%, while the knuckle curve has dipped from 8.3% to 4.1%.
That new mix makes sense. Fastballs are still the pitch hitters are most likely to punish, so dialing back the four-seamer should help Kimbrel over a larger sample.
The sweeper gives him a different look, too, with more horizontal movement that can be tougher for same-handed hitters to handle. The curveball is still in there, but now it serves more as a way to keep righties from locking in on the fastball or sweeper.
The Rays have taken an even sharper turn against left-handed hitters. Kimbrel’s fastball usage there has fallen from 75.1% with the Mets to 64.3% in Tampa Bay.
His curveball usage has more than doubled, from 9.7% to 23.8%, while the sweeper has been slashed from 18.2% to 2.4%. That curveball plays more neutrally against lefties than the sweeper does, which makes it a cleaner fit for the matchup.
Surprise! There is a new pitch!
In true Rays fashion, Kimbrel has also added an offspeed pitch - and he’s not simply flashing hitters the pitch - he’s throwing it nearly 10% of the time against left-handed hitters.
It resembles a kick change with solid vertical separation off his fastball. It may only grade as an average offering, but it’s another pitch left-handed hitters must respect, making both his fastball and curveball more effective.
The broader idea is clear: Tampa Bay has built a plan that gives Kimbrel a better shot to get outs against today’s hitters than the one he used over the past few seasons. The results haven’t fully shown up yet, but it’s still early in his Rays run, and these changes should give him a better chance to rediscover some of the effectiveness he had in his prime.
Even so, a permanent high-leverage role isn’t guaranteed. If Manuel Rodriguez, Edwin Uceta, and Steven Wilson all return healthy, the bullpen crunch could eventually cost Kimbrel his roster spot.
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