The Tampa Bay Rays spent the trade deadline shoring up the kind of cracks that can ruin a great season. They added catcher/first baseman Liam Hicks to give the lineup more pop, brought in Freddy Peralta to steady the rotation behind Drew Rasmussen and Nick Martinez while Shane McClanahan remains out with a back injury, and plugged another bullpen need with Tyler Wells to help set up All-Star closer Bryan Baker.
That kind of reinforcement only strengthened what was already one of the league’s best teams in the 2026 MLB regular season. It also showed up in the latest stock watch from ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle, where Tampa Bay’s playoff and championship odds both moved in the right direction.
The Rays are now projected for 94.9 wins, up from 93, even though they slipped from third to fourth in the wins projection after the Atlanta Braves jumped ahead with 96.6 projected victories. The Braves’ number comes after a rough stretch heading into the All-Star break.
More important for Tampa Bay, the postseason looks all but certain. The Rays’ playoff odds climbed to 99.9%, a bump from 98.6%.
They’re one of three teams sitting at 99.9%, alongside the Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers. The Milwaukee Brewers are the only club at 100%.
The World Series picture also improved. Tampa Bay’s championship odds rose to 13.0% from 9.7%, giving them the highest title odds in the American League. Only four teams are in double digits, and the Boston Red Sox are next in line at 8.2%.
That’s a sharp turn from where the Rays were supposed to be before the season began. Doolittle’s numbers had them pegged for last place in the AL East and written off as a non-factor. Instead, they’ve surged to the top of the division with the best record in baseball.
And even if some regression shows up the way Doolittle’s model suggests, Tampa Bay has built enough cushion to absorb it and still stay in the postseason mix.
In Other News...
Rays Bullpen Could Get Relief At Exactly The Right Time
The Rays have spent much of the summer piecing together their pitching staff with several arms on the injured list, including Cole Sulser, Shane McClanahan and Griffin Jax. In that kind of climate, any sign of help on the way matters, especially for a bullpen that has had to absorb plenty of strain while waiting for reinforcements to heal up and make progress.
Manuel Rodriguez has been moving through a rehab assignment and is trending toward a return after elbow surgery, which gives Tampa Bay a potential late-season lift at a time it could use one. His recent minor league work has looked encouraging, and the Rays will be watching closely to see whether he can bring the kind of stability that makes the rest of the bullpen picture a little easier to manage. [Read more 🡒]
Chandler Simpson Is Becoming A Huge Part Of Tampa Bays Surge
Chandler Simpson kept giving the Rays exactly the kind of spark that has helped fuel their recent surge, and on a day when Tampa Bay completed a sweep of Seattle, the rookie found himself in a more prominent spot in the order. Kevin Cash slid Simpson into the No. 3 hole and the move paid off right away, with Simpson going 4-for-5 and piling up three singles, a double and a run scored while the Rays kept putting pressure on the Mariners.
His speed remains the constant that changes innings for Tampa Bay, and it showed again as Simpson swiped his 31st base of the season and created stress on the basepaths throughout the game. Cash also shuffled the lineup to sandwich left-handed hitters between right-handed bats against Emerson Hancock, a wrinkle that fit the moment and left Simpson in the middle of it, another sign that the Rays are finding more ways to lean on his all-around impact. [Read more 🡒]