Ty Johnson’s Breakout Season Flips the Script on His Pitching Future
Every spring, there’s a familiar rhythm to prospect season. Rankings drop, debates heat up, and fans get their first real taste of what the farm system might hold.
For the Tampa Bay Rays, that annual exercise of ranking the top 25 prospects gives a snapshot of potential-but as we know, baseball development is anything but linear. And few players in the Rays’ system flipped the narrative in 2025 quite like Ty Johnson.
Coming into the year, Johnson was viewed as an intriguing arm-tall, projectable, and still refining his game. He was the final piece in the Isaac Paredes trade, and while his fastball could touch 98 mph, the lack of a reliable third pitch had many projecting him as a future bullpen piece. His delivery featured a dip-and-drive motion with a compact arm swing and a late leg kick that added deception, but the consensus was clear: without a horizontal weapon, his long-term home might be in relief.
Fast forward to December, and that projection looks a lot less certain.
From Bullpen to Breakout
The Rays started Johnson in the bullpen to open the 2025 season-a move that made sense given his profile and the organization's tendency to ease young arms into heavier workloads. But when he was moved into the starting rotation full-time on May 18, everything changed.
From that point on, Johnson didn’t just pitch well-he dominated. Over 92 innings as a starter, he posted a 2.05 ERA with an equally impressive 2.04 FIP.
His strikeout rate jumped to 34.6%, while his walk rate stayed manageable at 7.9%. Opponents hit just .166 against him during that stretch.
That’s not just good-it’s elite, especially in the context of minor league ball where inconsistency is the norm.
By season’s end, Johnson ranked 2nd in FIP, 4th in opponent batting average, 21st in ERA, 3rd in strikeout rate, and 4th in WHIP across all of minor league baseball. That’s a resume that demands attention-starter, reliever, or otherwise.
Rewriting the Narrative
What makes Johnson’s rise so fascinating is how it challenges the typical development arc. Scouts were skeptical of his ability to stick in a rotation without a third pitch, but the Rays clearly saw enough in his fastball-breaking ball combo-and in his ability to execute-to give him a longer leash. And he rewarded them with one of the most dominant stretches of any minor league starter this year.
The Rays are known for their ability to develop pitching, and Johnson’s leap is another testament to that system. Whether it’s refining his current arsenal or eventually adding that elusive third pitch, there’s no rush to pigeonhole him as a reliever when the results as a starter are this convincing.
What’s Next
At 24, Johnson is likely headed to Durham in 2026, putting him just one step away from the big leagues. If he continues to perform anything like he did in the second half of 2025, it won’t be long before he’s pushing for a spot in Tampa Bay’s rotation.
For now, he’s gone from a bullpen projection to one of the most exciting arms in the Rays’ system. And while the future always holds some uncertainty, one thing’s clear: Ty Johnson isn’t just on the radar anymore-he’s in the conversation.