This matchup comes with a little more familiarity than Tampa Bay has had in its previous World Series trips, and that history hasn’t exactly tilted the Rays’ way.
In 2021 and beyond, the Rays and Brewers have seen plenty of each other. They’ve played in every one of the last five seasons, and Milwaukee has had the better of it: 6-10 against Tampa Bay since 2021, including 1-2 this season.
The Brewers have also outscored the Rays by a 69-45 margin over that stretch. The numbers aren’t destiny, especially with both rosters changed quite a bit, but they do set the table for a series that looks awfully even on paper.
Start with the lineups, because the two offenses are built in remarkably similar ways. Tampa Bay’s top of the order centers on Yandy Diaz, Jonathan Aranda, Junior Caminero and Liam Hicks, who gives the Rays more of a big four look since arriving from Miami in early August. Milwaukee brings a similar punch with Jackson Chourio, Brice Turang, William Contreras and Jake Bauers, a group that has frequently occupied the top of the Brewers’ batting order in the postseason.
The Rays have the edge in raw power at the top, 104 homers to Milwaukee’s 90, and that gap is almost entirely tied to Caminero’s 42 home runs. But the overall production is nearly identical.
Tampa Bay’s top four posted an .820 OPS; Milwaukee’s checked in at .821. There’s not much daylight there.
The rest of the lineups don’t separate things much either. Victor Mesa Jr. gives Tampa Bay a useful bat, and Garrett Mitchell does the same for Milwaukee, but after those names the run-producing threat drops off fast.
If there’s a real offensive difference, it’s on-base skill. The Brewers strike out more, at 22% of plate appearances compared to 18.8% for the Rays, but they also walk more, 10.6% to 8.4%.
That means more traffic, more chances, and ultimately more runs. Milwaukee scored 832 in the regular season, while Tampa Bay finished at 736.
Advantage: Milwaukee.
On the mound, though, the Rays can make a strong case for having the deeper staff.
Milwaukee has the headline arm in Jacob Misiorowski, a potential Cy Young Award winner and a 100-mph force, and Logan Henderson gives the Brewers a dangerous one-two punch. After that, the drop-off gets steep. Tampa Bay’s top three of Drew Rasmussen, Freddy Peralta and Nick Martinez looks stronger, and Griffin Jax as a fourth starter or bulk option gives the Rays something Milwaukee can’t quite match.
That showed up in the postseason workload. Milwaukee’s starters and bulk pitchers have covered 32.1 innings across eight playoff games.
Tampa Bay’s group has logged 50 innings in eight games. Maybe some of that comes from the opponent - Cleveland was a pretty mediocre hitting team - but the regular-season numbers point the same way.
Advantage: Tampa Bay.
The Brewers, however, have been absolutely suffocating late in games.
Their bullpen was excellent in the regular season and has been even better in October. Trevor Megill, Aaron Ashby, Abner Uribe, DL Hall and JoJo Romero have combined for 35 innings in the postseason, more than Milwaukee’s rotation, and have done it with a 0.77 ERA. If you’re trailing the Brewers in the sixth, that’s a bad place to be.
Tampa Bay’s relief group has been one of the team’s strengths most of the year, too. Bryan Baker has led the way and hasn’t blown a save since May 11, leaving him 35-for-35 including the playoffs.
Cam Booser, Kevin Kelly and Tyler Wells have been dependable, though they haven’t been asked to provide the same kind of multi-inning coverage Milwaukee has gotten from its best arms. One concern for the Rays is Baker’s walk rate, 3.2 per nine innings, against a Brewers lineup that does a good job of working counts.
That’s one reason Tampa Bay might leave rookie Brody Hopkins off the postseason roster. He has big stuff, but the command hasn’t always been there.
Advantage: Milwaukee.
Defense is harder to pin down, and the metrics don’t give a clean answer.
Taylor Walls at shortstop is the classic example. Statcast has never loved him there, but managers would probably see him differently - maybe even as the best defender in the game. With that in mind, the broader picture still suggests both clubs can really pick it.
Milwaukee’s Brice Turang and Walls are among the best defenders anywhere. Chourio in left and Tampa Bay’s Chandler Simpson in left are both Gold Glove finalists, with Chourio appearing to get the stronger defensive grades.
Both teams are above average in center field. Tampa Bay gets the nod in right field with Mesa Jr., while Milwaukee’s Luis Lara is excellent but doesn’t play enough to move the needle as much.
At third base, the Ortiz-Hamilton combination may be a bit better. First base is a weakness for both clubs, and catcher is more average than difference-making on either side.
Fangraphs gives Milwaukee a slight defensive edge. The Fielding Bible says Tampa Bay has the more accomplished unit. So for now, the safest answer is this: neither, or maybe both.
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What made the homer even more of a talking point was everything that followed it, because Camineros celebration quickly became part of the story too. Baseball has a long memory for postseason theatrics, and this one drew a split reaction from commentators who either loved the swagger or thought it went too far. In a month where every detail gets magnified, the Rays suddenly have a fresh debate attached to their newest October star. [Read more 🡒]
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This one proved even more consequential. Freddy Peralta became a central figure in the postseason run, giving the Rays the kind of impact arm they needed when the games tightened and the stakes rose. The price to land him was significant, with Emilien Pitre, Aidan Smith and Gary Gill Hill all heading the other way, but the sort of move that can define a front office is rarely judged by the prospect package first. [Read more 🡒]
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The timing only adds to the larger debate surrounding the franchises future. The Rays are still under contract at Tropicana Field for two more seasons, while the clubs new stadium in Tampa is slated to open in 2029, keeping attention fixed on where this team belongs even as it chases a title somewhere else. A parade would be a welcome problem to have, but it would also serve as another reminder that the Rays next chapter is still being written. [Read more 🡒]