The AL East is headed into the stretch run with everything still hanging in the balance. Tampa Bay has spent most of the season in front, New York is lurking three games back, and Boston has turned an unlikely summer surge into a firm grip on a playoff spot. With less than three weeks left before the 2026 MLB playoffs, the division race and the postseason picture still have some twists left.
For the Rays, the biggest question is whether their pitching can survive one more grind. Tampa Bay’s schedule is rough, with series coming against the Astros, Phillies and Red Sox, plus a four-game set against the Yankees. That last matchup could matter even more because the Rays are already 6-3 against New York this season, which means one more win over the Yankees would lock up the season series and the tiebreaker.
That matters because the Yankees have a much easier path the rest of the way, aside from the Mets series that begins Friday. New York also gets the Twins, Orioles and Diamondbacks, and with Aaron Judge back in the lineup, the club believes it can keep closing the gap.
Still, the Rays’ real edge has long been their pitching operation under Kyle Snyder, and that unit is again being tested by injuries. Shane McClanahan went down with forearm tightness on Sept. 4 after missing about three weeks earlier this summer because of a back injury. Given his history - Tommy John surgery and a long list of elbow problems - that setback is especially troubling.
So if Tampa Bay is going to hold onto the division, Freddy Peralta has to be a big part of it. Acquired from the Mets at the deadline, Peralta hasn’t had the kind of season he wanted after finishing fifth in National League Cy Young voting last year.
He posted a 4.99 ERA with the Mets and carries a 4.35 ERA with the Rays. But there’s been a recent turnaround: in his last three starts, he has worked six innings each time and allowed only two runs total.
His release point has settled back in, his stuff has ticked up, and opponents are hitting just .200 against his fastball over that stretch.
The Yankees, meanwhile, may have found a useful spark in Anthony Volpe. With Judge back, the lineup gets the kind of lift it badly needed during a rough summer, but Volpe could help shape the final two weeks as well.
Jazz Chisholm has taken his share of criticism, yet over the last three seasons he still ranks second in fWAR at 13.7, third in homers with 93 and first in stolen bases with 133. Even in a down offensive year, he has 19 home runs and 40 steals.
Volpe, now handling second base after being called back up from the minors, might give the Yankees a steadier presence. While at Triple-A, he raised his hands higher in his setup to try to make more consistent contact.
The adjustment showed up Thursday night against the Rockies, when he collected three hits, including a grand slam that earned him a curtain call at Yankee Stadium. Afterward, he said he didn’t expect to be back in the majors this year.
Instead, he’s back now, and the Yankees will need that consistency if they’re going to chase down Tampa Bay.
Boston’s story is different. The Red Sox have already authored one of the season’s most improbable runs, climbing from 14 games under .500 to a 15-game winning streak and then another nine-game streak. At 80-67, they are firmly in the second wild-card spot and six games ahead of the Guardians, but they are too far back to win the division.
What comes next is a health check. First baseman Willson Contreras, Boston’s most productive hitter, has been out since Aug. 31 with a hamstring strain.
Center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela, who has been out since the start of September with a quad strain, could return next week. Contreras is set to begin a rehab assignment Friday and could be back as soon as Saturday.
The Red Sox need both of them.
Caleb Durbin, who carried the offense for much of the summer, has cooled off hard. He is batting .182 over his last 15 games after putting together a .301/.370/.473 line with an .845 OPS and 11 homers over his previous 72 games. He has dealt with a hand injury all season and has looked worn down in the final weeks.
The same health questions apply on the mound. Garrett Crochet has missed most of the year with a shoulder injury, and Tanner Houck is working back from Tommy John surgery while on a rehab assignment.
How much either can give Boston - and how effective they can be after such long layoffs - remains to be seen. Crochet is the bigger name in the short term, with his return not expected until the very end of the regular season and a bullpen role likely once the playoffs begin.
For Boston, the X-factor is simple: health. The summer magic was real, but it may have come with a cost.
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Rays Prospect Is Suddenly Forcing A Bullpen Conversation
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The biggest eye-opener came in a Durham game when Hopkins reached 102.1 mph with his hardest pitch, a number that tends to get the attention of any front office. He is not on the Rays 40-man roster yet, but hes putting himself squarely into the conversation as a potential call-up option, especially if Tampa Bay decides it wants another power arm in relief. [Read more 🡒]