The Rays are staring at a winter that could reshape the top of their rotation.
They came up just short of their first World Series title, and now the immediate question is whether the pitching group that got them that far can actually stay together. Nick Martinez and Freddy Peralta are both headed to free agency, and each brings a very different kind of decision for Tampa Bay.
Martinez is projected by The Athletic’s Jim Bowden to land a two-year, $48 million deal. That kind of price tag would be a real test for the Rays, even if there is still mutual interest in a reunion with the 36-year-old.
Peralta is a much bigger swing. After a huge finish to the season - including AL Pitcher of the Month for September and ALCS MVP - he looks well beyond the Rays’ comfort zone financially. Bowden projects five years and $140 million for Fastball Freddy, and it would take the largest free-agent contract in franchise history to keep him.
There is at least a starting point for 2027. Drew Rasmussen, Shane McClanahan, Ryan Pepiot, Griffin Jax, and Ian Seymour are all expected back, which gives the Rays enough names to piece together a five-man rotation. The problem is everything behind that group, and even that five comes with questions.
Rasmussen is entering the final year of his extension and will make $20 million. The Rays have a history of exploring trades in situations like this, and that could happen again. A new deal is possible too, but it would have to be substantial, since the right-hander is only one year from free agency.
Jax and McClanahan are also in their final year of team control. Jax made the move to starting this season, while McClanahan returned to the mound for 118 innings after not appearing in a game since 2023. Both have trade value, though modest extensions could also be part of the conversation.
It’s hard to picture the Rays heading into 2027 with all three unless at least one, and maybe more, are on new contracts.
Pepiot and Seymour are both under club control for multiple seasons and look like strong bets to stay in the mix. Pepiot, though, missed the entire season, and even if he opens the year healthy, there’s no guarantee he pushes past 150 innings.
Steven Matz is under contract for one more season and could still be an option for the rotation, but he looks more like a bullpen arm at this stage.
The farm system doesn’t offer much immediate relief. Brody Hopkins, Ty Johnson, and Joe Boyle all began the year in Triple-A Durham as starters, but each spent significant time in the bullpen, with mixed results.
Their next major-league opportunities appear to be out of the pen, not in the rotation. The other Durham starters are not viewed as serious big-league options yet.
Santiago Suarez is probably the closest starting pitching prospect with an MLB future. He posted a 4.50 ERA in 126 innings at Double-A this year. Jackson Baumeister should be in Triple-A to begin the 2027 season, but he still looks a long way from helping the big-league rotation.
That lack of depth looks even sharper because Michael Forret, who had put together a strong season in Triple-A this year, was sent back to Baltimore in the Tyler Wells trade.
So the Rays are left looking at the market, and probably willing to spend somewhere in the $20-30 million range on free-agent pitchers, just as they did last offseason with Martinez and Matz.
Martinez could come back. So could other veteran starters such as Dustin May, Jack Flaherty, or Clay Holmes.
Jeffrey Springs is also available after a disappointing season with the Athletics, and the Rays could view him as a swing man or spot starter in the same mold as Matz. There’s also the possibility of recapturing what he had during his first run with the club.
If Tampa Bay wants to make a bigger one-year bet, Robbie Ray is out there. The 35-year-old could cost upwards of $25 million for a single season, though, and that would be a risky play after he posted the worst strikeout and walk rates of any full season in his career.
Anything beyond that should force a serious look at what it would take to re-sign Freddy Peralta. He’s a respected veteran who clearly enjoyed his short time with the Rays, along with working with pitching coach Kyle Snyder. If Patrick Zalupski wants to prove these are not your father’s Rays, that would be one way to do it.
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For Tampa Bay, the interest makes sense on its own terms, even before the market starts to sort itself out. The Rays have rotation questions to answer, and Peraltas availability only sharpens the sense that this could become one of the more closely watched pitching pursuits of the winter. Baltimore may be the team drawing the headline attention, but the Rays are right there in the mix as the sweepstakes takes shape. [Read more 🡒]