There isn’t much separation in the American League right now, but the Rays and Yankees have carved out a little breathing room from the chaos. That’s what makes this four-game set at Tropicana Field starting Monday night feel like more than just another division series. Tampa Bay enters at 52-35, four games ahead of New York’s 49-40 mark, and the two clubs have already played five times this season, with the Rays taking four of those meetings.
For the Rays, the timing couldn’t be better. Junior Caminero is scorching, the pitching has been nails, and the club has won 11 of its last 16 games. Jonathan Aranda put the stakes plainly: "It's four really important games against the Yankees, and they're important now, but they're also going to be important at the end of the season," Rays first baseman Jonathan Aranda said through interpreter Kevin Vera.
The matchup also comes with a full slate of pitching intrigue. On Monday, Ryan Pepiot’s spot is listed for a game in which Ian Seymour will pitch in some capacity, though he could do it behind an opener.
Seymour has settled in quickly after joining the rotation last month, giving up only one run over 12 2/3 innings in his last two outings. If you strip away his rough Opening Day start, he owns a 3.21 ERA in 56 innings.
New York is countering with Will Warren, who has taken a clear step forward in his second season as a regular starter. He’s at a 3.73 ERA overall and has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 13 of his 17 starts, tied for seventh-most in the Majors.
Tuesday brings another heavyweight pairing: Shane Baz against Cam Schlittler. Baz has found his rhythm since moving into the rotation at the end of April, posting a 1.73 ERA over his last five starts and winning each of his last three.
Schlittler is looking to rebound after the roughest outing of his young career, when he gave up six runs and four homers in a 9-3 loss to the Tigers. Even so, the 25-year-old right-hander still owns an AL-best 2.08 ERA and remains the strong favorite for the AL Cy Young Award.
Wednesday features Ian Seymour and Max Fried, while Thursday’s finale lines up Drew Rasmussen against Gerrit Cole. Rasmussen is headed to his second straight All-Star Game after putting together a 2.78 ERA through 17 starts, one of the five best marks in the AL among qualified pitchers.
Cole, meanwhile, is making his ninth start since returning from Tommy John surgery in late May. He has a 4.01 ERA with 41 strikeouts in 42 2/3 innings and will face Tampa Bay for the 26th time in his career, including the postseason.
Against the Rays, he’s 8-7 with a 3.01 ERA.
The biggest name in the series, though, is Caminero. The Rays third baseman has turned into one of the sport’s most dangerous hitters during a home run spree that’s starting to look historic.
Kevin Cash called him "must-see TV," and that’s not much of an exaggeration. Caminero became the first player to hit at least 11 homers in an 11-game stretch since Kyle Schwarber in 2021, joining a list that includes Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire.
It’s a loud tune-up for next week’s Home Run Derby in Philadelphia.
The contrast between these teams is part of the appeal. Tampa Bay has only 84 home runs, fifth fewest in the Majors, while New York leads baseball with 128. The Yankees’ power has taken a hit without Aaron Judge, who is sidelined with a stress fracture in his rib, but both clubs still rank in the top half of the league in runs per game.
Pitching has been Tampa Bay’s edge during this surge. Since June 19, Rays arms have combined for a league-best 2.85 ERA, with only the Brewers and Red Sox also under 3.00 in that span. That’s a big reason the Rays have kept rolling.
Both teams will also be well represented at the All-Star Game on July 14 at Citizens Bank Park. The Rays and Yankees each have four All-Stars, tied with the Blue Jays for the most in the American League.
Tampa Bay is sending Yandy Díaz, Bryan Baker, Caminero and Rasmussen. New York’s group includes Judge, Schlittler, Cody Bellinger and Ben Rice.
In Other News...
Rays Linked To Proven Bullpen Upgrade As AL East Race Tightens
With the AL East tightening, the Rays are at the point in the season where even a division lead can feel fragile if the bullpen starts to wobble. Tampa Bay has already gotten solid work at the back end from Bryan Baker, but the club is always looking for ways to sharpen the late innings, especially with the trade deadline approaching and the rest of the division pushing hard.
Aroldis Chapman has emerged as one of the more intriguing names in that market, and his numbers with Boston help explain why. The left-hander has a 2.36 ERA with 18 saves in 28 appearances, production that would give the Rays another proven option in high-leverage spots if they decide to make a move. For a team trying to stay ahead in a crowded race, that kind of upgrade is hard to ignore. [Read more 🡒]
Rays Suddenly Have A Troubling New Bullpen Concern
The Rays bullpen has already been operating with little margin for error, and Edwin Ucetas latest injury update only adds to the pressure. Manager Kevin Cash said the right-hander is dealing with a setback in his shoulder rehab, a frustrating turn for a staff that has been trying to piece together innings while Ryan Pepiot, Manuel Rodriguez and Steven Wilson remain out with long-term injuries.
Uceta had been part of the group Tampa Bay hoped could help stabilize the relief mix, so any delay matters beyond just one arm. With the bullpen still stretched thin, the organization now has to wait on a clearer medical picture before it can know whether Uceta can realistically factor into the picture next season. [Read more 🡒]
Yankees Fans Have Been Waiting For Ben Rice To Reach This Stage
The Home Run Derby is headed back to Citizens Bank Park on July 13, and the early field already has a familiar Rays connection in Junior Caminero, who is in as one of the eight confirmed participants. The event will also return to a swings-based format, giving hitters more chances to settle in and do damage, which should suit the kind of power display that has made Caminero such a draw in the first place.
One of the more interesting additions is Ben Rice, who is set to take part for the first time as the Yankees keep watching his profile rise in a very different kind of spotlight. Philadelphia could still get a pair of hometown-relevant names in Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper if everything lines up, while Pete Crow-Armstrong has already bowed out, leaving the rest of the field to take shape around a few unresolved decisions. [Read more 🡒]