The Red Sox and Rays are heading into the kind of September series that can tilt more than one race at once. Friday night at Tropicana Field opens a three-game set with plenty on the line for both clubs, and neither side has the luxury of treating it like anything less.
Tampa Bay enters at 93-59, already in the postseason and in position to capture the AL East for the first time since 2021. Boston, at 83-70, is holding the second AL Wild Card spot and trying to stay there through a brutal closing stretch. The Red Sox also know a berth could be clinched as early as Saturday, while the Rays are working to trim their magic number to lock up the division before their next big test in New York.
That’s what makes this matchup so important even before you start thinking about October. The Rays finish the regular season against the Red Sox, Yankees and Phillies.
Boston, meanwhile, has this series, then three games each against the Guardians and Cubs. If the teams cross paths again, it could be in the AL Wild Card Series or the AL Division Series, but for now the focus is much simpler.
“Truthfully, from our standpoint, it’s like we only have today,” said Rays starter Ian Seymour, who gets the ball in the opener. “That’s the only thing that’s real.”
“You want to be going into October playing your best baseball,” Payton Tolle said. “We're just going to continue to keep the nose to a grindstone.
Can’t get too caught up in where you're at in the standings. So just one game at a time.”
Boston’s path is clear enough: keep the second Wild Card spot, and maybe make a push for the top one if things break right. The Red Sox are six games back of the Yankees for that top Wild Card position, and New York owns the tiebreaker, which makes a trip to The Bronx for a best-of-three Wild Card Series the most likely landing spot. Before any of that, though, they have to get through Tampa Bay, then turn around for three against Cleveland and three against Chicago.
The Rays are chasing a different finish. They lead the division by five games with 10 left and have a magic number of six entering Friday.
If they sweep Boston and get help from the Diamondbacks, who host the Yankees this weekend, Tampa Bay could wrap up the best record in the AL before leaving for New York on Sunday night. At minimum, this series gives them a chance to keep the cushion intact and stay on track before a huge four-game set with the Yankees starts Tuesday, including a doubleheader.
Both teams have gotten major production where it matters most.
Boston’s pitching has carried a huge load despite the injuries. The Red Sox rank second in the AL and third in the Majors with a 3.61 ERA, and their 21.5 pitching fWAR leads the AL and ranks third in MLB.
Sonny Gray has been the headliner, leading the AL with 17 wins and sitting fourth with a 2.76 ERA. Tolle has added a 9-6 record, a 3.02 ERA and 166 strikeouts in 143 innings, while Ranger Suarez has gone 7-4 with a 3.33 ERA over 137 2/3 innings.
The bullpen has been excellent too, leading the Majors with a 1.17 WHIP and ranking second with a 3.10 ERA.
Tampa Bay has been rolling in every phase during its six-game winning streak at the Trop, a run that started with Junior Caminero’s first career walk-off homer against the Astros and has since included sweeps of Houston and Oakland. The Rays’ rotation has been sharp, with a 2.99 ERA in September, the bullpen has handled its work, and the lineup has gotten big contributions from Chandler Simpson, who leads the AL in batting average and stolen bases. Jonathan Aranda has heated up as well, and Caminero has delivered a pair of walk-off blasts during the surge.
There are still a few trouble spots to watch.
For Boston, situational hitting remains an issue, and the club would love more from Roman Anthony and Jarren Duran. Anthony is batting .200 in September after returning from a nearly four-month stint on the injured list on Aug. 30, while Duran has slashed .203/.259/.359 with a .618 OPS.
Health is also worth monitoring after Willson Contreras left Thursday’s game when he was hit on the right hand by a pitch, though X-rays were negative and he is day to day. Closer Aroldis Chapman is also day to day with lat tightness.
The Rays, to be fair, don’t have many obvious flaws. The loss of setup man Tyler Wells for the rest of the regular season does thin out the group in front of All-Star closer Bryan Baker.
Their numbers against left-handed pitching are solid but not overwhelming, with a .251/.315/.372 slash line, though that’s tempered by a 28-15 record against left-handed starters. The bigger issue may simply be the schedule, because they’re facing three teams with something significant at stake.
The best individual matchup in the series comes Saturday afternoon, when Tolle and Freddy Peralta square off in what should be a fun one. Tolle has been a steady force for Boston all season, giving the Red Sox quality innings and working at least five frames in 21 starts. He’s also coming off a dominant stretch, allowing one run on eight hits and one walk while striking out 19 over his last 12 innings, including one immaculate outing.
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