Spring Training Begins, and the Rays Are Back to Doing What They Do Best: Flying Under the Radar
PORT CHARLOTTE - The Tampa Bay Rays know the narrative. They’ve heard the skepticism, seen the projections, and felt the sting of doubt from fans and pundits alike.
And you know what? They get it.
The Rays have never been the team that wins the offseason headlines. They don’t roll out a roster full of household names or drop nine-figure contracts like confetti. Instead, they operate with a bit of mystery - a little misdirection here, a surprise contributor there - and somehow, more often than not, they find themselves in the thick of the postseason race.
That’s the plan again in 2026.
“We’ve had plenty of seasons where the expectations were not terribly high and things turned out okay,” said Erik Neander, the Rays’ president of baseball operations. “We’ve had seasons where expectations were high and they didn’t turn out so well. The only thing that really matters is once you start playing games - are we winning or are we not?”
Right now, the projections say “not.” Baseball Prospectus pegs the Rays for 81-82 wins and a last-place finish in the loaded AL East.
Caesars has their over/under at 78.5 wins. Fangraphs?
78.1 wins and, again, the bottom of the division.
But if there’s one thing the Rays have taught us over the years, it’s to not take those numbers at face value.
Betting on Depth, Versatility, and a Rebuilt Staff
Neander sees something different in this group. Not a powerhouse, but a team with versatility, pitching depth, and a lineup built to win close games - the kind of 4-3 grinders that have defined successful Rays seasons in the past.
Yes, 2025 was a letdown. The Rays finished 77-85, and by October, it was easy to forget that they were sitting near the top of the standings in late June.
At one point, they had a 96.9% chance of making the postseason, according to the models. Then came a brutal July, where late-inning collapses became routine.
Still, they outscored opponents by roughly 30 runs over the course of the year - a stat that usually correlates with a winning record.
That’s the kind of underlying strength Neander is banking on.
Spending (Relatively) Big and Getting Experienced Arms
By their standards, the Rays opened the wallet this winter. They committed $38 million to free agents - pitchers Steven Matz and Nick Martinez, and outfielders Cedric Mullins and Jake Fraley. That might not raise eyebrows in New York or Los Angeles, but for Tampa Bay, it’s the biggest free-agent spending spree since they signed Zach Eflin in 2023.
And unlike last season, when they leaned heavily on young arms like Taj Bradley and Shane Baz (who combined for 52 starts with a 4.77 ERA), this year’s rotation has more seasoning. Martinez, Matz, Shane McClanahan, Ryan Pepiot, and Drew Rasmussen are all between 28 and 35 years old, and each has proven they can handle big-league lineups over a full season.
Add in a return to Tropicana Field - a more pitcher-friendly environment than their temporary digs in Tampa - and the Rays are leaning back into their identity: pitching, defense, and doing the little things right.
A Sharper Defense and a Lefty-Heavy Lineup
Manager Kevin Cash knows exactly what kind of team he wants to build.
“A lot of our successful years have been defined by pitching and defense,” Cash said. “It’s a pitcher’s ballpark.
We’re aware of that. It’s our job to build a defense behind our pitchers that can defend really, really well at a high level.”
That’s why the outfield got a makeover. Mullins and Fraley bring a clear defensive upgrade in center and right, and Chandler Simpson should be a step up from last year’s left field options. Gavin Lux takes over at second base - he’s not going to win a Gold Glove, but he’s got more range than Brandon Lowe showed last season.
Offensively, it’s a left-handed-heavy lineup - and that’s by design. With right-handed pitchers accounting for 74% of MLB starts last year, the Rays are positioning themselves to take advantage of those matchups.
So... Can They Pull It Off?
The roster isn’t flashy. The payroll is still modest.
And the projections aren’t exactly bullish. But that’s never stopped the Rays before.
Neander points to a trio of offensive anchors - Junior Caminero, Yandy Díaz, and Jonathan Aranda - as the kind of “aircraft carrier” bats that can carry a lineup. Around them, he sees depth, flexibility, and a defense that’s trending back toward the elite level Rays fans have come to expect.
“I think our defense overall is going to be tighter and a little more back to where it’s been in the past,” Neander said. “Where you look up and we’ve won a bunch of games, and it’s not necessarily by scoring a lot of runs. It’s just by doing a lot of little things while taking care of the baseball, pitching well, playing good defense.”
That’s the Rays’ formula. It’s not glamorous, but it’s worked before. And if it works again in 2026, don’t be surprised when Tampa Bay is back in the mix - doing what they do best: proving people wrong.