Major League Baseball’s offseason has opened with a whole lot of nothing, and that’s exactly why the general managers meetings in Las Vegas matter this week.
The first week of free agency has come and gone without a major signing or trade that moved the market. The biggest transaction so far arrived on Friday, when the Washington Nationals extended center fielder Jacob Young on a four-year, $23 million deal with an $8 million option for a fifth year.
It’s a solid move for a good player, but it also says plenty about how quiet this winter has been. The headline act of November is a team keeping its own center fielder.
That silence is happening with a hard deadline hanging over everything. The collective bargaining agreement expires at 11:59 p.m.
ET on Dec. 1, and once it does, everything stops - signings, trades and even contact between teams and players. The Winter Meetings, scheduled for Dec. 7-9 in San Diego, would not take place.
So the obvious expectation was a November rush, a sprint to get business done before the doors close.
Instead, the sport is still mostly standing around. That’s why the Vegas meetings come with a few things worth tracking closely.
Tarik Skubal sits at the top of the board. He’s the best player available, a two-time Cy Young winner, and ESPN insider Jeff Passan reports he’s expected to sign before the CBA expires for a record contract.
The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets are the teams most often mentioned, while ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel reports the New York Yankees are “thinking about” making a run. If Skubal gets his deal done before Dec. 1, it could kick the whole market into motion.
If he doesn’t, the freeze could hit hard, and nobody knows how long it would last.
Teruaki Sato is another name to watch because his clock is ticking too. The Japanese slugger has to sign before Dec. 1 as well unless the owners and players somehow avoid a lockout, and his 45-day posting window creates a deadline within the deadline.
The Dodgers, Mets, San Diego Padres, Philadelphia Phillies and Yankees are all tied to him. A quick signing would suggest the market still has life.
A slow one would show that even the players with leverage are reading the calendar the same way everyone else is.
Then there’s the Tampa Bay Rays, who just lost the World Series in five games to the Milwaukee Brewers. MLB insider Bob Nightengale says the Rays could re-enter the Ketel Marte trade talks, with about $85 million left on his deal. Tampa is the one club that can actually land him, and the question in Vegas is whether the Rays behave like a team with a window still open or one that might be preparing to move part of it before the lights go out.
The qualifying offers are worth watching too. Only eight were issued this winter, which USA Today called the weakest class in at least a decade.
Those players have until Nov. 17 to accept or decline a one-year, $23.15 million deal. In most winters, that number gets turned down quickly.
This year, with a lockout looming, guaranteed money for one season looks different. The question is how many players decide to take the security and wait.
The GM meetings are usually where the offseason starts to take shape. This year, they may end up revealing something simpler: whether anyone is ready to move now, or whether the entire sport is just waiting for Dec. 1 to shut everything down.
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