The Baltimore Orioles aren’t easing into the offseason - they’re charging full speed ahead. After already making waves with the additions of Pete Alonso, Ryan Helsley, and Taylor Ward, the O’s made another aggressive move by acquiring right-hander Shane Baz from the division-rival Tampa Bay Rays.
This latest deal, though, is raising some eyebrows. While the Alonso and Helsley moves were widely praised - both players bring proven production and fill clear needs - the trades for Ward and now Baz have sparked more debate. And it’s not hard to see why.
Let’s start with the return: Baz, a 26-year-old righty with electric stuff when healthy, is coming off a 2025 season where he posted a 4.87 ERA for the Rays. That’s a far cry from the 3.06 ERA he registered in 2024, and a reminder that he’s still working his way back from Tommy John surgery. The stuff is still there - Baz has flashed top-of-the-rotation upside in the past - but the consistency hasn’t returned just yet.
Baltimore is betting big that it will.
The Orioles didn’t just give up a back-end prospect or two to land Baz. They sent Tampa Bay a significant package headlined by some of their top young talent: Slater de Brun, Caden Bodine, Michael Forret, and Austin Overn, plus a Competitive Balance Round A draft pick.
That’s a haul - and not just in quantity. Brun, Bodine, and Forret are all considered potential top-10 prospects in a farm system that’s been one of the best in baseball in recent years.
So yes, this is a swing-for-the-fences kind of trade. Baz is under team control for three more seasons and is projected to make a manageable $3.1 million in 2026, which fits nicely into Baltimore’s payroll structure. But the gamble here is clear: the Orioles are hoping Baz can recapture his pre-injury form and develop into the kind of front-line starter that’s so hard to find - especially one with years of control remaining.
That’s the upside. The downside?
If Baz doesn’t return to form, Baltimore just gave up a chunk of its future for a middle-of-the-rotation arm. And that’s where the skepticism comes in.
Grading the trade, ESPN’s David Schoenfield gave the Orioles a “C” - not a failing grade, but certainly not a glowing endorsement. The Rays, on the other hand, walked away with an “A” for their end of the deal, adding another impressive group of young players to a system that thrives on developing talent.
This is a high-risk, high-reward move for Mike Elias and the Orioles’ front office. They’re clearly all-in on contending in 2026, and they’re not afraid to part with top-tier prospects to do it. But with Baz still working his way back to full strength - and with the price tag being what it was - this trade is going to be under the microscope.
If Baz becomes the pitcher the Orioles believe he can be, this could be a bold move that pays off in October. If not, it could be the kind of deal that stings for years to come.