The Orioles just made a bold move to reinforce their rotation, acquiring right-hander Shane Baz from the Rays in exchange for a package of prospects and a Competitive Balance Round A draft pick. Headed to Tampa Bay are outfielders Slater de Brun and Austin Overn, catcher Caden Bodine, right-hander Michael Forret, and that valuable draft slot. It’s a significant deal-one that signals Baltimore’s continued push to reload on the fly with controllable arms that still carry upside.
Baz, 26, is expected to slot directly into the Orioles’ starting five. If his name rings a bell, it’s because he was once one of the sport’s most hyped pitching prospects.
Back in 2022, Baseball America had him ranked No. 8 overall, right behind another familiar name in Baltimore: Grayson Rodriguez, who sat at No. 6 on that same list. Of course, Rodriguez is now in Anaheim, dealt to the Angels earlier this offseason for slugger Taylor Ward.
That trade moved a former top-10 arm out of Baltimore. Now, they’ve brought another one in.
It’s not a one-for-one comparison-Rodriguez and Baz are very different pitchers with different risk profiles-but it’s hard not to notice the symmetry. The Orioles parted with a once-prized young arm and followed it up by acquiring another, albeit one with a lengthy injury history of his own.
Baz is coming off his most durable season yet, logging 166 1/3 innings over 31 starts for Tampa Bay in 2025. The surface numbers-4.87 ERA-might not jump off the page, but there’s more under the hood.
Metrics like SIERA (3.95) and FIP (4.37) suggest he pitched better than the ERA indicates. He struck out nearly a quarter of the batters he faced (24.8%), kept walks in check (9.0%), and posted a solid 46.7% ground-ball rate.
The issue? Home runs.
Baz gave up 1.41 long balls per nine innings, and a whopping 15.6% of fly balls he allowed left the yard.
A big chunk of that homer trouble came in right-on-right matchups, and there’s context worth considering. The Rays spent last season playing their home games at Steinbrenner Field-normally the spring home of the Yankees-while Tropicana Field underwent repairs following hurricane damage.
Statcast pegged Steinbrenner as the second most homer-friendly park for right-handed hitters in MLB. Camden Yards isn’t exactly a pitcher’s haven, but it’s a step down in terms of righty power potential, which could help Baz rein in the long ball issues.
Health remains the biggest question mark. Baz has had a rough go of it on that front.
He had arthroscopic elbow surgery in early 2022, pitched just 27 innings that season, then landed back on the IL with an elbow sprain. That led to Tommy John surgery in September 2022, wiping out his entire 2023 and delaying his 2024 debut.
But when healthy in 2025, he was throwing gas-averaging 97 mph on his four-seamer-and flashing a new weapon: a knuckle curve that gave hitters fits. Opponents hit just .214 and slugged .321 against the pitch, which wasn’t part of his arsenal before this past season.
He also mixes in a changeup and a cutter, with the changeup showing more promise in 2025.
Baz is under team control through the 2028 season and enters his second year of arbitration eligibility as a Super Two player. He’s projected to earn $3.1 million this year-affordable for a team like Baltimore, which now sees its payroll climb past $140 million. Even with that, they’re still well below the first luxury tax threshold and have room to maneuver.
Adding Baz helps address a clear offseason need for the Orioles: starting pitching. He’s not a guaranteed frontline guy at this stage, but he brings upside and depth to a rotation that includes Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish, and Dean Kremer as penciled-in starters. That fifth spot is still up for grabs, with Tyler Wells, Cade Povich, Brandon Young, and Chayce McDermott all in the mix.
Still, this group feels like it’s one veteran arm away from being postseason-ready. The Orioles have been aggressive this winter-signing Pete Alonso, trading for Taylor Ward, adding Ryan Helsley to the bullpen, and now bringing in Baz.
It’s a clear signal: they’re in win-now mode after a disappointing 2025 campaign. And with big-name starters like Framber Valdez, Ranger Suarez, and Tatsuya Imai still on the market, Baltimore has both the financial flexibility and the incentive to make another splash.
Baz may not be the final piece, but he’s a meaningful one. If he stays healthy and keeps the ball in the yard, the Orioles might have just landed a mid-rotation arm with top-end potential-without having to pay top-end prices.