Thursday’s smaller MLB slate still leaves room for power plays, and three names stand out on Sept. 17: Junior Caminero, Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr.
Home run props are never easy. Even elite hitters only clear the fence in about six to eight percent of their at-bats. But that’s also why the payouts tend to be attractive, with most of these bets sitting in plus-money territory.
Caminero is the first target, and the Rays third baseman has been swinging a loud bat all season. He’s up to 41 home runs, and over his last 25 games he’s hitting .299 with six homers.
Tampa Bay also gets a gift of a matchup against Athletics left-hander Jeffrey Springs, who has been tagged for 33 home runs in 27 appearances while carrying a 5.93 ERA. It doesn’t stop there, either, because Springs has the worst bullpen in MLB behind him at 5.38 ERA.
That gives Caminero a real chance to see another favorable arm later in the game.
The numbers against Springs are encouraging, too. Caminero is 2-for-4 with a double and a 1.350 OPS in his career against him.
And while he has only eight homers against lefties this season, he’s still hitting .296 with a .946 OPS versus southpaws. With the Rays trying to keep pace with the New York Yankees in the AL East, he looks primed to stay hot.
Soto is the next name on the board, even though the Mets star has been in a bit of a rut since returning from the injured list. Over 16 games, he’s batting .221 with four home runs and a .729 OPS. Still, the underlying power is very much there: Soto has 25 home runs in 101 games, including 20 against right-handed pitching, and he’s batting .281 versus righties in 2026.
That matters Thursday because New York is facing Philadelphia and Aaron Nola. The Phillies right-hander owns a 4.69 ERA and has given up 34 home runs in 30 outings this season.
He’s also allowed at least one homer in 22 games in the 2026 campaign, which makes him a pitcher hitters can attack. Soto has done damage against him before, going 12-for-43 (.279) with five homers, two doubles, 19 runs batted in and a 1.174 OPS.
At a price below 3/1, he’s worth a look in the series opener.
Then there’s Tatis, who may be the hottest hitter of the group right now. Since the All-Star break, the Padres star is hitting .301 with 18 home runs and a .991 OPS, and he’s gone deep eight times in his last 24 games. Over the last week alone, he’s posted three homers, a .320 average and a 1.193 OPS.
San Diego gets Colorado righty Tanner Gordon, who has allowed 18 home runs in 22 outings in 2026. The Rockies’ pitching staff has also been one of the league’s weakest, sitting 27th in bullpen ERA at 4.94. Tatis has taken full advantage of right-handed pitching this year, with 14 of his 23 homers coming against them, and he draws this matchup while the Padres sit in the middle of a playoff race in the NL.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
In Other News...
Rays Quiet Signing Just Created A Tough Rotation Decision
Nick Martinez has been one of the quiet success stories of the Rays season, the kind of offseason addition that can reshape a rotation without generating much noise at the time of the signing. Tampa Bay brought him in on a one-year deal last winter, and he responded with the best starting season of his career, piling up a 15-4 record, a 2.94 ERA and his first All-Star selection.
Now the question is less about what Martinez has done than what comes next. With a mutual option part of the original arrangement, the Rays have a decision to make, and so does Martinez, who is weighing the pull of staying put against the possibility of chasing a multi-year contract in free agency after handling a heavy workload at an age when every inning matters. [Read more 🡒]
Rays Infield Shakeup Creates A New Question In The AL East Race
Taylor Walls is back in the Rays infield after being reinstated from the 10-day injured list with a right hip flexor strain, giving Tampa Bay another layer of defensive versatility as the stretch run tightens. To clear a spot, the club optioned Nick Madrigal to Triple-A Durham, a move that reflects how quickly the Rays can reshape the roster when they need to match form, health and fit all at once.
Walls return is expected to send Jorge Mateo back into a reserve role, while the lineup also gets outfielder Jake Fraley back in the mix. For a team trying to keep pace in the AL East, those kinds of small adjustments can carry outsized weight, especially when the margin for error is already thin and every healthy bat and glove can alter how the next few series play out. [Read more 🡒]
Former Mets Starter Just Became A Harsh Free Agency Warning
Freddy Peraltas trip through the 2026 season is turning into a useful reminder for pitchers on the free-agent market: one rough year can change everything. He labored through a difficult run with the Mets, and the 4.99 ERA in 22 starts did plenty of damage to his value before he landed with the Rays and settled in a bit more comfortably.
The rebound in Tampa Bay, where he posted a 3.86 ERA in eight starts, has helped his case some, but not enough to erase the bigger concern hanging over his next deal. The sense around the market is that Peralta is heading toward a one-year prove-it contract rather than the kind of long-term payday that once looked realistic, which is exactly the sort of cautionary tale teams and pitchers watch closely this time of year. [Read more 🡒]