Four teams are left standing, and the October picture is split in two very different ways. In the American League, the Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians bring an unfamiliar look to the league championship stage. In the National League, the Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers give the bracket a heavyweight feel.
The Rays and Brewers finished the regular season as the top teams in their leagues by record, while the Dodgers kept rolling as the reigning champions and the Braves could not stop them. Cleveland is the outlier in the field: the AL’s No. 2 seed, baseball’s lowest-payroll club, and a team that had to claw back from a 2-0 hole with two home losses in the ALDS before winning three straight, including two on the road, against the White Sox to reach the ALCS for the second time in three years.
ALCS: No. 2 Cleveland Guardians vs.
No. 1 Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay enters this series looking like the more complete team, and that starts with the pitching setup. The Rays were already in a better position than Cleveland before the ALCS began, and they also have the luxury of arranging their staff however they want after the Guardians had to lean hard on their arms in a five-game series against the White Sox.
Cleveland does have more starter depth than Chicago did, but that rotation needs to deliver real length to keep everyone fresh in a longer series. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, can throw Drew Rasmussen, Freddy Peralta and Nick Martinez for innings, then follow with multi-inning weapons like Griffin Jax and Ian Seymour.
That kind of depth makes life miserable for a Guardians offense that is not built to trade punches. With Bryan Baker anchoring the back end, the Rays can turn almost every inning into a grind. Against that kind of pitching inventory, run-scoring chances can dry up fast.
The Rays did not exactly light up the Yankees, but they may not need a big offensive outburst here. Their lineup has gotten important contributions from players beyond Junior Caminero and Yandy Diaz, and that matters. Ryan Vilade and Victor Mesa Jr. both homered in the clincher in New York, while Cleveland’s pitching is not on the same level as New York’s when the starters are factored in.
The Guardians keep finding ways to stay alive, and they played their best baseball down the stretch and in the ALDS. But against a team this clean and this deep, a slow start would be a major problem.
Prediction: Rays in 5 (Rays to win ALCS 61.83% on ProphetX)
NLCS: No. 2 Los Angeles Dodgers vs.
No. 1 Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee won 103 games in the regular season, best in baseball, yet it still comes into the NLCS as the underdog. A lot of people still want proof that the Brewers’ brand of winning over six months can hold up against the Dodgers in a short series. Now they have to show it.
The Brewers had this same chance last October and got swept by Los Angeles. This group is better than that one, and there’s a case to be made that the Dodgers are a little less imposing than they were a year ago, especially with Shohei Ohtani clearly not 100 percent. Even so, the Dodgers still hold one huge edge: starting pitching.
Milwaukee’s pitching staff deserves respect. Jacob Misiorowski arrives as fresh as possible, having thrown only 12.1 innings over the previous 25 days, and the Brewers’ bullpen is a real advantage.
But postseason games still have to be won by scoring, and Milwaukee’s offense struggled to come through with timely hits in the NLDS and does not bring much power. Now it has to deal with Tarik Skubal, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow.
That is a brutal run of arms, and there is no easy stretch in it.
The Dodgers’ lineup is not especially scary at the moment. Ohtani is not swinging the bat like himself, and the group is among the oldest in baseball.
Still, Los Angeles won the World Series last season despite a poor offensive series against the Blue Jays, and this year’s rotation is better than the one it had then. Milwaukee can absolutely win this series if it plays its usual crisp brand of baseball, but it has to score enough to take down the champs.
Home-field advantage does not swing things much for Milwaukee, either. Getting a split in the first two games would be useful, but then the Brewers would have to go to Dodger Stadium for three straight.
Even if they steal one there, they could head back to Milwaukee needing to win both remaining games. In this format, the edge that mattered in the NLDS barely helps at all in the NLCS.
Prediction: Dodgers in 6 (Dodgers to win NLCS 63.79% on ProphetX)
In Other News...
Rays Just Created An ALCS Edge Fans Will Argue About
The Rays spent the ALDS doing what they do best, keeping the Yankees from ever finding a foothold and moving through the matchup in a clean sweep. By the time they wrapped up on Oct. 7, Tampa Bay had already put itself in position to sit back, reset and wait for its next opponent, whether that ends up being the Guardians or the White Sox.
That pause matters in a postseason where every bullpen decision gets magnified, and it could leave Tampa Bay with a real edge when the ALCS begins on Monday at Tropicana Field. The Rays did not have to lean hard on their pitching staff in the first round, which means the group should be fresher than the club waiting on the other side of the bracket, and that is the sort of advantage opposing fans will debate right away if the series starts going their way. [Read more 🡒]
Rays Young Bats Are Showing Why October May Not Be Too Big
Junior Caminero and Jonathan Aranda did not play like young hitters blinking under October lights during the Rays' sweep of the Yankees in the ALDS. Both turned in notable offensive contributions, helping Tampa Bay control a series that could have felt bigger than their age or experience level, and manager Kevin Cash pointed to the work they had already banked earlier in the year as part of the reason they looked so steady.
The World Baseball Classic gave them a setting with real edge and real pressure, and Cash credited those games with helping prepare them for the postseason atmosphere. For a Rays club that leaned on youth and needed immediate production, the sight of Caminero and Aranda looking comfortable in a playoff setting offered more than just a nice October subplot, it hinted at how little stage fright this group may carry into whatever comes next. [Read more 🡒]
Red Sox Catcher Search Keeps Pointing To One Familiar AL East Name
The Rays have spent the offseason reminding the rest of the AL East how quickly roster-building can pay off when the right mix of trades, a Rule 5 Draft swing and a targeted free-agent addition come together. It was the sort of formula that helped fuel their run to the ALCS, and it is also the backdrop for any club around the division looking for ways to solve a weakness without overcommitting long term.
Bostons search for catching help has already taken one familiar path through the division, with Hunter Feduccia once a Red Sox target before landing with the Dodgers and settling in as a backup. The Orioles, meanwhile, could be heading into their own bullpen churn, with Andrew Kittredge and Keegan Akin both in line to reach free agency and Akin still working back from Tommy John surgery, a reminder that the AL Easts roster chessboard never stays still for long. [Read more 🡒]