Garrett Cleavinger’s rough stretch doesn’t look like a pitcher losing himself. It looks more like a reliever who’s been a little unlucky, a little off on his fastball location, and now sits at a crossroads while on the IL.
The numbers tell a split story. Through July, Cleavinger posted a 3.31 ERA and 3.40 FIP.
Since the start of August, those results have fallen apart, with a 10.38 ERA and 6.79 FIP. Even so, his command hasn’t cratered.
In fact, his first-pitch strike rate has improved from the high 50s to the low 70s between the two samples.
The deeper indicators also suggest he hasn’t suddenly become a different pitcher. From March through July to August through September, his Zone% went from 43.3% to 46.3%, his Strike% stayed essentially flat at 63.4% and 63.5%, his Chase% moved from 34.5% to 31.6%, his Contact% from 74.5% to 73.9%, and his Hardhit% from 41.3% to 39.3%.
What has changed is the outcome on balls in play and, to a lesser extent, where his fastball is ending up. Cleavinger has been burned by a .385 BABIP during this skid, far above his .283 career mark.
Some of that is just bad luck. Some of it appears tied to a subtle drift in fastball location that has made his stuff less deceptive.
The location split is hard to ignore. Over his career, Cleavinger has allowed a .390 wOBA on fastballs located on the arm-side third of the zone, compared to just .212 on fastballs on the glove-side third. Earlier in the season, he was consistently getting both of his fastballs across the zone to that glove-side spot, giving his pitch mix the kind of angle and cross-fire look that makes him difficult to square up.
Lately, though, he’s been missing more to the arm side. The fastball still works there to a point, but it strips away some of the deception that comes when he spots it glove-side and down.
That matters even more because his breaking ball also lives across the zone in a similar lane. When the fastball hits the intended spot, the pitches can feed off each other.
When it doesn’t, the whole package loses some of its tunneling effect.
What makes this interesting is that Cleavinger’s delivery doesn’t seem to have changed much, which raises the possibility that the fix is less mechanical than visual. His catcher begins by setting up high and near the middle of the zone before sliding toward the glove-side target.
Against lefties, that setup is typically more in. Against righties, it’s usually closer to the middle.
A possible answer would be to shift that initial setup a little more glove-side. If he’s missing arm-side with a high-and-middle cue, changing the visual target could help him rediscover the feel for getting the fastball back down and across the zone. The goal wouldn’t be to alter where he wants the pitch to go, just the cue he uses to get there.
The timing may at least give him a chance to try it. With Cleavinger already on the IL, he can work through the adjustment without having to test it in a game right away.
Still, there’s real danger in tinkering this late in the year. Relievers depend on routine, and a new visual cue in September can create more problems if it doesn’t click quickly.
With the postseason approaching, there isn’t much room for trial and error.
The bigger point is that Cleavinger doesn’t need a reinvention. The underlying numbers say the Rays’ faith in him earlier this season wasn’t misplaced.
He needs the BABIP luck to turn and, more importantly, needs to get back to locating his fastball glove-side and down. If that comes back, the rest of his arsenal should fall back into place with it.
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