Louis Varland had the kind of season that usually wins this sort of thing. He was steady, nasty and reliable for Toronto, and the Baseball Writers’ Association of America rewarded him on Wednesday with the inaugural American League Reliever of the Year award.
But not every voter saw it that way.
One ballot - from Times sports columnist John Romano - went to Tampa Bay’s Bryan Baker instead, and the case for Baker came down to a simple idea: when the numbers are this close, the context matters. Baker was handling the hardest innings for the best team in the AL, and that weighed heavily in the decision.
The three finalists were Varland, Baker and Cleveland’s Cade Smith, and the statistical gap between them was thin. Baker and Smith each finished with 41 saves, while Varland had 35.
Varland posted a 1.27 ERA, Baker came in at 1.44 and Smith at 1.95. In hits and walks per nine innings, Baker allowed 0.914, Smith 0.959 and Varland 1.000.
Varland converted 95% of his save chances, Baker 93% and Smith 89%.
So what separated them for the voters who didn’t land on Baker?
Romano figures many were drawn to the kinds of metrics that feed into WAR, especially strikeout percentage. Varland struck out 31.6% of the hitters he faced in 2026, while Smith was even higher at 36.3%. Baker’s strikeout rate was 25.8%, closer to the MLB average of 22.1%.
That matters, especially for a reliever who can enter with traffic on the bases and needs a clean escape. Strikeouts are a strong sign of dominance, and Baker’s raw strikeout total didn’t stack up with the other two finalists. Still, Romano argued that awards should also reflect what actually happened on the field, and Baker’s results were hard to ignore.
He didn’t let an inherited runner score all season. He allowed fewer baserunners than either Varland or Smith.
Opponents hit just .161 against him. And even without the eye-popping strikeout rate, he still averaged better than a strikeout per inning.
The save total also carried real weight. Baker and Smith led the majors with 41, and Romano pointed out that saves may be one of the most criticized stats in modern baseball, but they still mean something.
Tampa Bay was 92-0, including the postseason, when leading after eight innings this season. The last team to put together a streak that long was the Athletics 24 years ago.
Baker’s role helped shape the rest of the Rays bullpen, too. He wasn’t the closer when spring training opened, but once Edwin Uceta went down with injury and Griffin Jax and Garrett Cleavinger struggled, Baker took over the ninth inning.
That let manager Kevin Cash settle the rest of the bullpen into set roles starting in the sixth inning. Baker didn’t work every ninth inning, and others still surfaced there in close games, but Tampa Bay had a clearer structure with him locking down the back end.
Romano also acknowledged that if general managers were asked which of the three pitchers they’d want next season, many would probably lean toward Varland or Smith because of their more explosive stuff. Even so, after watching Baker run off 30 straight saves beginning in mid-May - plus five more in the postseason after ballots had already been submitted - he felt comfortable putting Baker first.
Romano’s ballot had Baker at No. 1, followed by Varland, Smith, Jacob Latz and Aroldis Chapman.
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