The Tampa Bay Rays are making another move that fits their identity: expect the unexpected.
For Game 1 of the World Series against the Milwaukee Brewers, Kevin Cash is turning to Nick Martinez instead of Drew Rasmussen. Cash went with Rasmussen to open the ALDS against the New York Yankees and the ALCS against the Cleveland Guardians, so this change will draw attention. But it also lines up with how the Rays have been building this pitching plan.
The likely setup has Rasmussen following in Game 2, with ALCS MVP Freddy Peralta set for Game 3 at Tropicana Field against his former team. If that holds, Griffin Jax would take Game 4, then Martinez would be back for Game 5. That arrangement would leave Rasmussen and Peralta, Tampa Bay’s two best pitchers right now, available for Games 6 and 7 if the series goes that far.
Martinez is the kind of starter Tampa Bay trusts in a tense road setting, and he has already helped the club win at Yankee Stadium and Progressive Field this postseason. His numbers back up the comfort level. On the road this year, Martinez posted a 2.43 ERA across 103.2 innings, while at home he had a 3.90 ERA in 85.1 innings.
Peralta’s splits with the Rays run the other way, though the sample is smaller. He has generally been stronger at home than on the road, and there is some context there: his first two starts with Tampa Bay came at Coors Field against the Colorado Rockies and Sutter Health Park against the Athletics, both hitter-friendly parks.
More recently, he has been dominant regardless of venue. And moving him to Game 3 means he’ll pitch at Tropicana Field and avoid having to deal with the extra emotion of facing a former team on the road.
The staff has kept making adjustments on the mound, and the results have been there. As Cash put it, “When Nick pitches, we win,” Kevin Cash said.
“Excited to hand Nick the ball in Game 1 and we’ll go from there.” Cash said they prioritized getting Drew Rasmussen and Freddy Peralta proper rest.
I’d expect Rasmussen to start in Game 2 and Peralta in Game 3 at Tropicana Field. https://t.co/tNyXmN0ywT
Rasmussen’s workload also factors into the decision. If he starts Game 2, he would be pitching on five days’ rest. His overall ERA is 2.57 in 19 starts, and the rest pattern matters: he has a 2.77 ERA on four days’ rest, but that drops to 2.14 when he gets six or more days, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.
The Rays have leaned on pitching all year, and this is another example of the way they keep putting their arms in the best possible spot to succeed. The switch in order may look bold, but Tampa Bay has been living this way for a while now, and the numbers have supported it.
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