The Tampa Bay Rays are headed into the World Series as underdogs, even after a 98-win regular season and a win over the New York Yankees in the American League East race. The Milwaukee Brewers won more games, posted a stronger run differential, and did it against a tougher schedule, so the edge on paper points their way.
But in baseball, underdog doesn’t mean doomed. The gap between these teams isn’t wide, and Tampa Bay has enough going for it to make this feel more like a tight matchup than a mismatch. If the Rays are going to bring home their first World Series title, there are a few clear reasons they can do it.
The first is the top of the rotation. Drew Rasmussen and Freddy Peralta have both been excellent in October, and the Rays have had the better postseason results from their front two starters. Milwaukee can counter with Jacob Misiorowski, the NL Cy Young favorite, and rookie Logan Henderson, but Tampa Bay’s pair has outperformed them so far.
Here’s how the two tandems have stacked up in the playoffs:
Pitchers IP ERA K/BB
Misiorowski and Henderson
17 ⅓
3.12
1.89
Rasmussen and Peralta
37 ⅔
1.19
3.50
The Brewers’ duo hasn’t been bad, particularly in run prevention, but Rasmussen and Peralta have been sharper overall. The command numbers are especially worth watching, with Misiorowski and Henderson both showing some issues there.
There’s also the question of workload. Misiorowski’s innings total has climbed from 141 ⅓ last season, across the minors, majors, and playoffs combined, to 183 in 2026.
That’s a significant jump for a pitcher who has already thrown nearly 1,200 triple-digit fastballs this year. He hasn’t had a true ace-level start in more than a month.
Henderson has also taken on more innings, rising from 103 in 2025, between Triple-A and the majors, to 131 ⅓ this season including the postseason. None of that is extreme, but stretching a six-month grind into seven months can wear on a young arm.
Tampa Bay’s side is built a little differently. Rasmussen and Peralta are older, and Peralta in particular is accustomed to heavy usage and the durability that comes with it.
If this series goes deep, those two could each make two starts, which gives the Rays a possible edge that matters. Nick Martinez could also be a factor in the rotation once Game 3 arrives.
Another reason for Tampa Bay’s confidence is what the team has looked like since the trade deadline. The Rays went 40-20 from that point on, including a 7-2 mark in the playoffs, and the additions they made clearly raised the team’s level.
Peralta’s arrival after being acquired from the Mets has paid off in a big way. After making adjustments, he posted a 131 ERA+ in 10 stretch-drive starts, and he has been even better recently.
Liam Hicks, brought in from the Marlins, has been another difference-maker. It was a bold move to change primary catchers in the middle of the season, but it worked.
Hicks hit .288/.379/.440 after the trade and gave Tampa Bay a major upgrade behind the plate. He even hit No. 3 for Kevin Cash in the clincher over Cleveland.
Tyler Wells has also helped deepen the Rays’ setup group, which was a clear need before the deadline.
Then there’s the bat that could swing the whole series. Junior Caminero has been the kind of hitter who can hijack a postseason matchup all by himself.
In the regular season, the 22-year-old played every game, finished with an OPS+ of 144, and blasted 42 home runs. He hit 45 homers in 2025, and his quality-of-contact numbers back up the production.
No one in this series looks more capable of changing a game, or even the entire series, with one swing.
In Other News...
Rays Payroll Debate Just Got Harder To Ignore
The payroll conversation around the Rays has only gotten louder because the gap between Tampa Bay and the leagues heavy spenders keeps showing up in the standings and in October. The Brewers sit in the middle of the pack by comparison, but both clubs are still built around value, with most of the roster coming through on bargain contracts rather than the kind of high-priced core that has defined recent World Series winners.
For Tampa Bay, that model is still the defining feature of the roster, and it is easy to see why the debate keeps coming back whenever the playoff field gets smaller and the richest clubs remain in it. The Rays have been able to stay competitive by squeezing production from young, inexpensive talent and maximizing every dollar, but the broader question is whether that approach can keep matching up against teams that can simply absorb mistakes and add more impact talent when they need it. [Read more 🡒]
Rays Face A World Series Problem Their Speed May Not Solve
The Rays have made speed part of their identity all season, and that has carried straight into October. Tampa Bay and Milwaukee both pushed the running game to the front of the scouting report during the regular season, finishing first and second in stolen bases, and neither club has backed off in the playoffs. It figures to be one of the most interesting subplots of the World Series, especially with the Rays trying to use quickness as a way to create pressure in a matchup where every extra base can matter.
Chandler Simpson has been a central figure in that approach, giving Tampa Bay a true threat once he reaches. The bigger question is whether the Rays can also handle the other side of the equation, because Milwaukee comes in with a reputation for controlling the running game better than almost anyone. If Tampa Bay cannot keep that from becoming a factor, the Series may end up turning on whether its speed can create enough chaos to offset what the Brewers do best. [Read more 🡒]
Rays Fans Heading To The World Series Face A Brutal Parking Problem
With the World Series landing at Tropicana Field, the biggest headache for fans may not be inside the ballpark but outside it. Parking and transportation are expected to be a problem with large crowds converging on St. Petersburg, and local transportation companies say demand is already rising as they get ready for the event.
St. Pete Police are urging attendees to plan ahead and look at alternative ways to get there rather than counting on a simple drive-and-park routine. The advice is straightforward: give yourself extra time, consider rideshare or other transit options, and think about a drop-off plan before heading out, because getting in and out of the area is likely to be the part of the trip no one remembers fondly. [Read more 🡒]