The Milwaukee Brewers are one win from the World Series trophy, and the Tampa Bay Rays are trying to keep their season from ending Tuesday night in Game 4 at 8 p.m. ET.
After Milwaukee’s 10-1 demolition on Monday, Tampa Bay is staring at a 3-0 hole in the best-of-seven series. The climb out is about as steep as it gets.
In MLB postseason history, 42 teams have fallen behind 3-0, and only one - the 2004 Boston Red Sox - has completed the comeback. Put another way, the Rays are facing what history says is a 2.4% shot.
And that number may still be generous, because teams that dropped the first three games while starting the series on the road have done it 18 times and lost every single time.
If there’s any realistic path left, it starts with simply staying alive. Teams that have trailed 0-3 in a postseason series have won Game 4 23.8% of the time, and that has to be the target for Kevin Cash’s club: survive long enough to force Game 5.
That makes Tuesday night all about three questions.
The first is whether Tampa Bay can finally do real damage against Milwaukee’s bullpen. The Brewers entered the series with a clear edge in relief depth, and that advantage has only grown louder.
Aaron Ashby has been untouchable in this postseason, not allowing a run in eight appearances. He has thrown 15 ⅔ innings, given up only five hits, and struck out 17 while walking three.
More broadly, Milwaukee’s bullpen has posted a 1.34 ERA over 53 ⅔ innings this postseason, with a 25.5% strikeout rate. In the World Series alone, those numbers sit at a 1.38 ERA and a 28.6% K%.
Tampa Bay’s relief group has not matched that level. Through this World Series, the Rays bullpen has a 6.17 ERA and an 8.3% strikeout rate.
That gap has been a major reason the series has tilted the way it has. Game 4 could turn into another bullpen-heavy night for Pat Murphy and the Brewers, and it might even become a full bullpen game.
Brandon Woodruff had been lined up as the Game 4 opener, but his work in the Game 3 blowout may have changed that plan. However Milwaukee handles it, the Rays need to find a way to make the Brewers’ relievers pay.
Tampa Bay also needs more from Griffin Jax. If the Rays are going to limit the strain on their own bullpen, Jax has to give them length. That has been a problem, though, because he hasn’t made it past four innings in a start in more than a month.
The second question is whether Junior Caminero’s power can finally show up. This series has been short on pop overall.
The teams have combined for just two homers through three games, and Milwaukee didn’t even hit a ball to the pull field during its 10-run barrage in Game 3. Neither club built its offense around the long ball in the regular season, but the Rays leaned on it a little more than the Brewers did, which makes this drought tougher on Tampa Bay.
Caminero is the obvious place to start. The 23-year-old was Tampa Bay’s biggest power source during the season, when he hit 42 home runs and went deep once every 14.7 at-bats.
In the playoffs, though, he has only one home run in 43 at-bats. That blast came in the American League Championship Series against Cleveland.
If the Rays are going to force a Game 5, they probably need Caminero to wake up now.
Then there’s the biggest individual award still hanging in the balance: World Series MVP. Since Milwaukee needs one more win and Tampa Bay needs four, the trophy is all but certain to go to a Brewer. The real debate is whether it belongs to William Contreras or Jackson Chourio.
Both have made strong cases. Chourio is coming off a four-hit night in Game 3 and has been electric throughout the series, batting .571/.571/.643 with three steals in three tries and four runs scored.
Contreras has been just as central in his own way. The Brewers catcher has shut down Tampa Bay’s running game, handled the staff, come through with successful ABS challenges, and produced at the plate.
Through three games, he’s hit .538/.571/.538 with a walk, three RBI and a run scored.
Contreras has the broader all-around résumé in the series. Chourio may have the hotter hand. Sal Frelick and Ashby could still muscle into the conversation with a big Game 4, but right now the MVP race looks like it belongs to one of those two Brewers.
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Rays Kept Their Season Alive But Game 5 Just Got Tougher
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Kevin Cash made it clear afterward that the victory came with a price, because getting through an extra-inning playoff game meant leaning hard on pitchers the club may need again immediately. Game 5 now shifts from a simple elimination test to a planning exercise for Tampa Bay, with the staff having to sort through who can still answer the call and how far the Rays can push the group that just helped them survive. [Read more 🡒]
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Ortiz said he was not claustrophobic, but the situation still rattled him enough to become a topic on the set. For a national broadcast built around the matchup on the field, the unexpected delay gave the production a little extra drama of its own and added one more strange note to a night already carrying World Series pressure. [Read more 🡒]
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The Rays were staring at the end of their season in Game 4 against the Brewers, and instead got the kind of chaotic night that can swing an entire World Series. With multiple lead changes and big relief innings from Nick Martinez and Bryan Baker, Tampa Bay kept itself close long enough for the game to spill into extra innings, where every pitch felt season-defining.
Ben Williamson eventually supplied the finish, lining the walk-off hit that sent the Rays home with a win and pushed the series to a Game 5. For a club that needed every out just to survive, the victory was equal parts bullpen grit and late-game nerve, the kind of escape that can change the mood of a series in a hurry. [Read more 🡒]