Home runs used to be the safest currency in October. Not this year. The postseason just delivered a full-on reminder that slugging can vanish fast when the pitching gets nasty enough.
The numbers tell the story. This was a postseason with a record fastball velocity of 96.1, up from 93.6 only 10 years ago, and it produced the lowest slugging mark in the 19 seasons of pitch tracking at .336. The rate of at-bats per home run also dropped by 35% from last year, falling to its lowest point in 12 years.
That kind of drought wasn’t random. Pitching was simply overwhelming. Teams were dealing with arms that were harder, sharper and deeper than ever, and the result was a postseason in which slugging cratered to a level the pitch-tracking era had never seen.
The Brewers were the clearest proof that October doesn’t have to be won with the long ball. Milwaukee finished last in the NL in home runs and 28th overall in the regular season, then rode speed, contact and opposite-field hitting all the way to the title.
As Jake Bauers put it about teams still chasing launch angle, “It doesn’t win any more. It may work once in a while.
But it’s not something that’s sustainable consistently with the way pitching is today. And when you rely on that kind of hitting, and it’s not working, you have nothing.
No other way to win a game.”
Milwaukee also had a major scheduling edge. The Brewers played 13 games across 18 days off, and manager Pat Murphy was able to keep leaning on his high-leverage relievers with the best stuff because the team knocked out the Padres and Dodgers in four games each. That rest mattered.
The postseason as a whole showed just how often teams were blanked by power. Clubs played more games without a homer this year, 39, and won more games without one, 12, than in any of the past 12 postseasons.
Milwaukee led that trend in style, going 5-0 in games in which it did not homer. With expanded playoffs, the Brewers became the first team to go 5-0 in homerless postseason games, topping the 1907 Cubs and 1922 Giants, who both went 4-0.
The shift wasn’t limited to October, either. Tampa Bay’s evolution under Kevin Cash and GM Erik Neander showed how teams are adjusting to the pitching landscape.
In Cash’s 12th year managing the Rays, the club leaned into a small-ball, contact-heavy, risk-taking identity that fit the moment. That was a change for an organization that had previously downplayed that style through its analytics-driven lens.
The contact spike was real. In 11 previous seasons under Cash, Tampa Bay had never finished in the top half of MLB in contact rate. This year, the Rays led the league.
That broader offensive shift sets up an interesting free-agent case in Brandon Lowe. Coming off a career-best season, he stands out as one of the more intriguing names on the market.
With Pittsburgh, Lowe posted corner-type power from second base in the manner of Jeff Kent, hitting 35 homers with 96 RBI, both career highs, while also improving defensively and logging a career-high 656 plate appearances. He may be the best left-handed bat available.
But age complicates the equation. Lowe will be 32 next season and turns 33 in July, and the middle infield is a rough place to buy the back end of a contract as the game gets younger.
Over the past eight seasons, only seven qualified middle infielders age 33 and older posted an OPS+ above 99. That’s less than half the number from each of the three eight-season windows before this one.
This year’s decline included Marcus Semien, Trevor Story, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson, Jake Cronenworth, Jeff McNeil and Trea Turner, all between 32 and 35 and all with an OPS+ of 90 or lower.
In Other News...
Rays Face Tough Roster Calls With Bubble Players Running Out Of Time
The post-World Series shuffle has already started in Tampa Bay, where the Rays have been busy adding and removing players from the 40-man roster as they sort through the first round of offseason business. Even with those moves in motion, the bigger decisions are still ahead, and the calendar is doing some of the pressure work for them with the 40-man roster deadline on Nov. 17 and the non-tender deadline three days later.
That leaves a familiar Rays dilemma: which pitchers and position players are worth protecting, and which ones are too risky to carry through the winter with roster spots at a premium. Injuries and surgeries have only complicated the picture, including the situation around Edwin Uceta, and the front office now has to balance depth, health and flexibility while the bubble players wait to find out whether they have a place in the clubs plans. [Read more 🡒]
Rays Stadium Plan Is Moving But Tampa Bay Still Has A Hurdle
Hillsborough County took another step toward the Rays long-discussed stadium plan this week, with commissioners moving the proposed ballpark onto the list of projects eligible for money from the countys half-cent sales tax. The board also advanced the bond side of the financing, a procedural but important move that keeps the project in play and lets county lawyers start the next phase of review.
Even with those votes in hand, the public money is not ready to be spent. The County Attorneys Office still has to work through the bond validation process, and the stadium package will need more agreements and more commission action before the county can actually put dollars toward the ballpark. For a proposal that has already spent plenty of time in the public eye, the latest vote is progress, but not the finish line. [Read more 🡒]
Kevin Cash Still Earned A Telling Sign Of Respect Around MLB
Will Venable and Pat Murphy took home the Baseball Writers Association of Americas Manager of the Year honors, a reminder of how much respect there is around the game for the job both men did in 2024. Venables work with the White Sox stood out in the American League after a major turnaround and the clubs first postseason berth since 2021, while Murphy made history by becoming the first National League manager to win the award three straight times.
For the Rays, the more telling note is that Kevin Cash remained firmly in the conversation on the AL side. Even in a race that went to Venable, Cashs presence near the top underscores how widely his work is still valued across MLB, especially in a league where navigating injuries, roster churn and constant adjustment has become part of the job description. [Read more 🡒]