When Milwaukee started piling up damage in the seventh inning on Wednesday night, one familiar baseball debate came roaring back into view - and it had Kevin Cash looking a little more justified, years after the fact.
Jake Bauers and Garrett Mitchell went back-to-back in the top of the seventh, and the Brewers kept rolling to a 6-2 win over the Dodgers to take a 3-0 lead in the National League Championship Series. For Milwaukee, it was a huge night. For Cash, it probably came with a quiet little nod of validation.
The connection runs straight back to Game 6 of the 2020 World Series. In that game, the Rays were in a must-win spot, Blake Snell was dealing, and he had worked six shutout innings on just 73 pitches. Then, after he allowed a one-out single to Austin Barnes, Cash made the call to pull him.
That move became one of the defining second-guesses of that series. The bullpen gave up two runs that inning and another in the eighth, the Dodgers won the title, and the Rays were left with a winter full of “what ifs.”
On Wednesday, Dave Roberts found himself in a similar spot with Snell on the mound for Los Angeles. Snell gave up a first-pitch homer to Jackson Chourio to start the game, then settled in and dominated for six innings.
Roberts let him keep going to open the seventh, which meant Snell was facing the Brewers a third time. Roberts stayed with him after Andrew Vaughn drew a leadoff walk.
He stayed with him after Bauers turned the game with a two-run homer in an 11-pitch battle. He stayed with him again after Mitchell launched another homer later in the inning.
By the time the fourth run of the frame scored, Roberts finally went to the bullpen. By then, the damage was already done.
That’s the part of the game fans hate most, especially the old-school crowd: the hook that comes right when a starter looks like he might still have more in the tank. But clubs have spent years leaning into pitch counts and third-time-through-the-order data for a reason. The more hitters see a starter, the more the odds tilt against him.
Snell’s career has usually followed that script. He hasn’t often worked past the sixth inning, and when opposing hitters get a third look at him, the results have been worse than in the first two trips.
Entering this season, opponents hit .197 with a .576 OPS the first time through the order against Snell. The second time through, those numbers climbed to .217 and .670. The third time through, they rose again to .232 and .698.
Still good. Just not as good. And that drop-off is exactly why those decisions keep coming up, even when the pitcher on the mound looks untouchable for most of the night.
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