As the 2019 NHL playoffs draw near, Steven Stamkos and Mark Scheifele are back in familiar territory: both sit at the center of teams expected to make real noise, and both carry the weight of last spring’s disappointment.
That’s the backdrop for this matchup. Tampa Bay and Winnipeg were supposed to keep rolling in 2018, only to fall short of the final.
Stamkos and Scheifele were two of the biggest names on those favored teams, and while their numbers looked solid enough, their conference finals didn’t match the expectations around them. Now the Lightning and Jets are being picked again, and once again these two forwards are at the heart of everything.
The question is simple: who is better positioned to deliver a Conn Smythe Trophy-caliber run in 2019?
On offense, there isn’t much separating them. Both are essentially point-per-game players in the regular season and in the playoffs.
Stamkos gets more of his production from goals, especially on the power play, and that kind of finishing touch matters in the postseason. Scheifele is just as dangerous with the man advantage, but he does it differently.
Stamkos sets up on his off-wing and looks to hammer one-time passes from side to side, while Scheifele operates from the slot and thrives on quick feeds from behind the goal line. In that category, it’s a wash.
The gap opens up defensively, and it opens wide. Stamkos is not a liability, but his work away from the puck in the defensive zone is a weak spot, and that may have played a role in his move from center to right wing.
Scheifele, by contrast, is described as an excellent defensive player. He forechecks intelligently, supports the puck well in his own end, and is much stronger in one-on-one battles.
One stat stands out: over the last four seasons, Scheifele has been credited with more than twice as many takeaways as Stamkos.
Durability also tilts heavily toward Winnipeg’s center. Stamkos has been through a brutal stretch of injuries: a broken leg in 2013-14, Thoracic Outlet Syndrome in 2015-16, and a major knee injury in 2016-17.
He remains a strong straight-line skater, but he does not have the same agility or flow he once did. Scheifele has had a much cleaner path.
He missed 22 games in 2017-18 with what was speculated to be a shoulder injury, but when he came back, he was excellent in the playoffs and kept playing at an elite level this season. The injury hasn’t slowed him down.
If the game turns physical, Stamkos still brings more bite. Scheifele uses his size well and can lean on opponents, but he isn’t a particularly physical player and doesn’t have a mean streak.
Stamkos, even if he’s no longer the relentless forechecker he once was, still has a nasty edge when he or a teammate gets challenged. He throws more hits than Scheifele, and when he lands one - whether it’s in open ice or along the boards - it can leave a mark.
He doesn’t hit with the same frequency he once did, but the threat is still there.
The bigger picture matters most, though. Tampa Bay has been the NHL’s best team this season, and Stamkos remains one of its most important players.
Even so, injuries have changed him. He is no longer the explosive, overpowering skater who could go stride for stride with any scorer in the league.
He’s become more of a high-end sniper with a dangerous shot. Last year’s playoffs showed the problem: Stamkos scored just one even-strength goal in 17 games.
In tight games against elite opponents, he’s drifting toward power-play specialist territory. If he’s going to drive Tampa Bay deep into the postseason, he has to do more at 5-on-5 and continue to deliver on the man advantage.
Scheifele’s burden is different, and maybe heavier. For the second straight year, Winnipeg is a legitimate Stanley Cup contender, and he is the Jets’ main man.
He’s on track to finish the regular season among the league leaders in ice time among forwards, and that workload is only going to continue in the playoffs. His line is expected to start every period, and he’ll be one of the first names over the boards in special-teams situations.
The Jets need him to create offense and help shut down the other team’s power play. Matching last postseason’s 10 even-strength goals in 17 playoff games may be a tall order, but he has to get close for Winnipeg to have the run it wants.
This is the NHL, where yesterday’s achievements don’t buy you anything today. On current form, Scheifele gets the nod over Stamkos heading into the 2019 playoffs.
The edge belongs to the player whose all-around game has earned it. Now the real test begins.
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