Tampa Bay Lightning Trade Deadline Preview: Still Contenders, Still Calculated
With the Olympic break giving teams a moment to breathe, the Tampa Bay Lightning aren't kicking back-they're recalibrating. The trade deadline looms less than a month away, and while some teams are figuring out who they are, the Bolts already know: they’re buyers. And even with an aging core and a laundry list of injuries, Tampa’s not just surviving-they’re thriving.
Let’s break down where they stand, what they need, and how they might approach another playoff push.
The Resilient Contenders
Tampa’s start to the season was rocky-1-4-2 out of the gate-but since then, they’ve looked every bit the perennial contender we’ve come to expect. Despite losing close to 70 man-games from key players like Andrei Vasilevskiy, Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Anthony Cirelli, and Victor Hedman, the Lightning sit atop the Atlantic Division with a 37-14-4 record and a playoff probability north of 99%.
That’s not just impressive-it’s elite. They rank top-five in both goals scored and goals allowed, and they’re allowing the seventh-fewest shots per game in the league. In a wide-open Eastern Conference, they’ve got as good a shot as anyone to make their fourth Stanley Cup Final appearance in seven years.
And they’re not done yet.
Cap Space & Deadline Ammo
Tampa heads into the deadline with about $3.84 million in projected cap space. They haven’t used any of their three retention slots, and they’ve got 47 of 50 contracts filled. That gives GM Julien BriseBois some flexibility, though not a ton of room to swing wildly.
Draft capital isn’t as scarce as it’s been in recent years, either. While they’re without their first-round picks in 2026 and 2027, they’ve got a decent stash of mid- and late-round selections, plus a 2028 first still in the bank. That’s more than enough to work with-especially if the market continues to favor buyers, as the Artemi Panarin deal may have signaled.
Trade Chips: Sam O’Reilly, Benjamin Rautianen & the Prospect Pool
In past years, Tampa’s deadline strategy has been surgical. They don’t chase headlines-they chase fit.
Think depth over dazzle. That’s unlikely to change, even if BriseBois reportedly had interest in Panarin.
If anything, it shows the Bolts are willing to explore big swings if the fit is right.
One name that could come up in trade talks: Sam O’Reilly. Acquired from Edmonton in a swap of late first-rounders last summer, O’Reilly was the 32nd overall pick in 2024.
He’s now finishing up his OHL career with the Kitchener Rangers after a midseason trade from London. He hasn’t lit the league on fire offensively, but he’s still viewed as a safe, two-way center with strong vision-a classic third-line agitator in the making.
If Tampa wants to reunite with a familiar face like Blake Coleman, O’Reilly might be the piece they need to part with. Coleman’s under contract through next season at a $4.9 million cap hit, and Calgary isn’t in a hurry to move him.
The Flames would likely need to retain salary, which raises the asking price. Tampa doesn’t have a first-rounder to dangle, but O’Reilly could carry comparable value.
Another intriguing chip is Benjamin Rautianen. A fourth-round pick in 2025, the 20-year-old Finn has exploded this season with Tappara, leading Finland’s Liiga in scoring with 17 goals and 61 points in 46 games.
For a prospect pool that’s been thinned by years of contending, Rautianen’s breakout is a big deal. Moving both O’Reilly and Rautianen in one deadline push would be a gamble-and probably too steep a price for a team that needs to keep one eye on the future.
What They Need
1. A Third-Line Wing Upgrade
Tampa’s top six, when healthy, is still dangerous. But injuries to Point and Cirelli have exposed some depth concerns, especially on the wing.
Gage Goncalves has filled in admirably, but the Lightning could use a more proven option to round out the top nine. Someone who can chip in offensively without sacrificing the defensive structure Jon Cooper demands.
Coleman fits that mold perfectly-and so would someone like Michael Bunting, a pending UFA in Nashville. The Bolts don’t need a star here. They need a glue guy with playoff grit and enough skill to tilt a shift or two in their favor come spring.
2. Right-Shot Defensive Depth
Tampa’s blue line doesn’t need a major overhaul. Darren Raddysh has stepped up in a big way this season, and Erik Černák remains a steady presence.
But behind them, the right side gets thin fast. Maxwell Crozier is a serviceable depth piece, but if either Raddysh or Černák goes down, the Bolts could find themselves scrambling.
A veteran rental-think Connor Murphy or a Luke Schenn reunion-would give them insurance without disrupting the chemistry. It’s the kind of low-risk, high-reward move that’s become a BriseBois specialty.
The Bottom Line
This isn’t a team that needs a facelift. It’s a team that needs fine-tuning.
The Lightning have weathered injuries, leaned on their stars, and trusted their system. And it’s worked.
Now, with the deadline approaching, they’ve got a chance to solidify their depth without mortgaging what little future capital they have left.
Don’t expect fireworks. Expect precision. That’s how the Lightning operate-and it’s why they’re still one of the most dangerous teams in hockey.