Lightning Strike Back: Tampa Bay’s November Surge Puts East on Notice
Let’s get this out of the way: the Tampa Bay Lightning just ripped through November like a team on a mission. Fourteen games, eleven wins, and a seven-game heater still rolling. That’s not just a bounce-back - that’s a full-blown statement.
At the start of the month, the Lightning were buried near the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings. Only the Sabres were keeping them company in the basement.
Fast forward 30 days, and Tampa Bay is sitting at the top, tied with the Hurricanes. That’s not a small climb - that’s scaling Everest in a month.
But how did they do it? Did they suddenly become a possession juggernaut?
Not exactly. Did they lock things down defensively?
Also no. In fact, a lot of the underlying numbers don’t scream dominance.
But what they did do is capitalize - and that made all the difference.
The Numbers Behind the Surge
Let’s dig into the 5-on-5 stats. In October, the Lightning were middle-of-the-pack across most metrics.
Their goals-for per 60 minutes (GF/60) sat at 2.48 - 18th in the league. In November?
That number jumped to 3.24, good for 5th. That’s a significant leap in actual scoring, even though their expected goals-for (xGF/60) actually dipped slightly from 3.10 to 2.87.
So what changed? Efficiency.
Tampa Bay’s shooting percentage at even strength skyrocketed from 9.33% in October (19th) to a blistering 13.14% in November - second-best in the league. That kind of jump doesn’t happen by accident. The Lightning weren’t generating more chances; they were just doing more with the ones they got.
They also got a bump in net. Their team save percentage improved from .907 to .915, jumping them from 15th to 9th league-wide. Andrei Vasilevskiy was a major reason why - more on him in a bit.
Interestingly, the Lightning actually took fewer shots in November. Their shot attempts per 60 dropped from 59.29 to 55.18, and their shots on goal went from 26.42 to 24.66. But again, they made them count.
They weren’t necessarily creating more high-danger chances either - those went from 11.32 per 60 to 11.70 - but their finishing improved. They converted 1.62 high-danger goals per 60 (up from 1.41), and their mid-danger finishing saw a big jump too, from 0.59 to 1.17 goals per 60. In short: they didn’t flood the zone; they just buried the chances they had.
Stars Stepping Up
When you’re hot, your stars usually have a lot to do with it - and that was certainly the case in Tampa.
Nikita Kucherov, doing what Nikita Kucherov does, racked up 22 points (7 goals, 15 assists) in November, tying him for third in the league. Brandon Hagel was right behind him with 19 points (12 goals, 7 assists), trailing only Jason Robertson in goals for the month. And Jake Guentzel kept his team MVP campaign alive with 17 points of his own (10 goals, 7 assists).
Hagel’s resurgence, in particular, has been crucial. He never stopped generating chances, but now that the puck is going in for him again, it’s helping offset Brayden Point’s recent scoring struggles.
Depth Contributions and Injury Fill-Ins
Now, about that “healthier roster” narrative - yeah, that didn’t last. Over the course of the month, 27 different players suited up for the Lightning.
Twenty-four of them recorded at least one point. That’s impressive depth, especially when you consider the injuries to key defenders like Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh, and Erik Cernak.
Darren Raddysh was one of the biggest beneficiaries of that defensive shuffle. He stepped into a larger role and delivered, posting 2 goals and 11 assists in 12 games - including 4 power-play points while quarterbacking the top unit. That’s a career month for the 27-year-old, and it couldn’t have come at a better time.
Charle-Edouard D’Astous also made the most of his opportunity, logging nearly 20 minutes per game, blocking 17 shots, and chipping in 6 points (1 goal, 5 assists) while holding down a second-pair role.
Up front, Zemgus Girgensons added some muscle and timely scoring. His 3 goals and team-leading 41 hits gave the Lightning a physical edge, and his work alongside Yanni Gourde and Pontus Holmberg gave Tampa a reliable third line that could both defend and generate offense. That trio posted a 60.97% expected goal share over 77 minutes together - solid stuff from a depth unit.
The Vasilevskiy Factor
Let’s not bury the lede here: Andrei Vasilevskiy was the difference-maker in November.
His 5-on-5 numbers were elite - a .932 save percentage, 1.94 goals-against average, and 8.47 goals saved above expected (GSAx). Those are Vezina-caliber numbers, plain and simple.
He faced more high-danger chances than he did in October, but he handled them like a brick wall. His save percentage on those looks jumped from .778 to .908 - a massive turnaround. With the defense in flux, Vasilevskiy had to be sharp, and he delivered.
When he wasn’t in net, Jonas Johansson held down the fort. His numbers weren’t eye-popping - .865 SV%, 2.96 GAA, -2.84 GSAx - but he went 3-1 in his four starts. For a backup, that’s job done.
Where They Stand Now
The Lightning’s November run has completely flipped the script on their season. They’ve opened up a four-point lead over second-place Boston - with two games in hand - and they’re now six points clear of falling out of a playoff spot altogether.
The Eastern Conference is still tightly packed. Buffalo may be stuck at the bottom, but only five points separate the last-place Sabres from the Penguins, who currently hold the second Wild Card spot. That means there’s not much room for error - but it also means Tampa has a real opportunity to create separation if they keep banking points.
With a schedule heavy on Eastern Conference matchups ahead, the Lightning have a chance to keep climbing - or at least solidify their standing. November was a reminder of what this team can be when the stars align (and when the stars play like stars). If they can keep this momentum going, the rest of the East might be chasing them for a while.