Welcome to part three of our deep dive into the Stanley Cup Ingredients for the 2025-26 season. We've crafted a formula using seven key elements that have defined recent champions over the past decade. Today, we're zooming in on the role of elite goaltending during the playoffs.
We've all seen it happen: a dominant team falters in the postseason because their goaltending crumbles, or they face an opponent whose goalie suddenly turns into a wall. The impact of goaltending in the playoffs is often magnified due to the smaller sample size compared to the regular season.
Take last season's Presidents’ Trophy-winning Winnipeg Jets, who barely scraped through Round 1, only to be ousted in Round 2. Their star goalie, Connor Hellebuyck, struggled on the road despite his regular-season accolades.
The idea that goalies with stellar regular-season stats are reliable in the playoffs took a hit last year. But let's not jump to conclusions just yet. Over the past 10 seasons, how often has having a top-10 regular-season goalie correlated with winning the Cup?
We define a top-10 goalie as one who played at least half of their team’s games and posted a top-10 save percentage. This regular-season metric is crucial for teams aiming for deep playoff runs. While save percentage is a team stat, it’s essential to see how an elite goalie meshes with an elite team.
Here's a look at the correlation over recent years:
- 2015-16: Pittsburgh - Yes (Fleury, .921)
- 2016-17: Pittsburgh - Yes (Murray, .923)
- 2017-18: Washington - No
- 2018-19: St.
Louis - Yes (Binnington, .927)
- 2019-20: Tampa Bay - Yes (Vasilevskiy, .917)
- 2020-21: Tampa Bay - Yes (Vasilevskiy, .925)
- 2021-22: Colorado - Yes (Kuemper, .921)
- 2022-23: Vegas - No
- 2023-24: Florida - Yes (Bobrovsky, .915)
- 2024-25: Florida - No
The correlation is strong, with seven of the last 10 champions featuring a top-10 goalie in save percentage. Even though last season was a "no," Bobrovsky was still a key player for the Panthers, ranking 14th in save percentage and performing well in goals saved above expected.
Looking at this season’s leaders in save percentage (minimum half team’s games played):
- Scott Wedgewood, Colorado Avalanche, .916
- Ilya Sorokin, New York Islanders, .914
- Logan Thompson, Washington Capitals, .914
- Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tampa Bay Lightning, .914
- Igor Shesterkin, New York Rangers, .913
- Filip Gustavsson, Minnesota Wild, .911
- Jet Greaves, Columbus Blue Jackets, .909
- Joel Hofer, St.
Louis Blues, .909 9.
Spencer Knight, Chicago Blackhawks, .907 10.
Dan Vladar, Philadelphia Flyers, .907
Some intriguing insights emerge. Andrei Vasilevskiy, with his stellar playoff track record, gives Tampa Bay a significant edge.
Meanwhile, Colorado is well-positioned with Wedgewood leading in save percentage. Underdogs like Sorokin and Greaves could also spark surprising playoff runs.
Interestingly, only four of the top 10 goalies are with teams currently in playoff spots. Notably absent from the top 10 are goalies from contenders like the Carolina Hurricanes, Dallas Stars, Edmonton Oilers, and Vegas Golden Knights.
As the playoffs approach, the goaltending landscape could play a decisive role in shaping the championship race.