Tampa Bay enters another season with the same blunt reality hanging over everything: anything short of a Stanley Cup push feels like a letdown. That standard hasn’t changed because the core hasn’t changed, and as long as Nikita Kucherov, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Victor Hedman and Brayden Point are still in the fold, the Lightning will be judged like a contender.
Last season started in ugly fashion, with six losses in seven games, but Tampa steadied itself quickly. A five-game bounce-back and two longer winning streaks dragged the team back into the mix, and the Lightning finished 50-26-6, second in the Atlantic Division. Kucherov delivered a Hart Trophy season, while Vasilevskiy added another Vezina-winning campaign.
The year was hardly smooth, though. Hedman dealt with physical issues and mental health struggles.
Point’s production fell off sharply. Injuries kept several regulars in and out of the lineup.
Even so, Tampa kept afloat thanks to unexpected help from Darren Raddysh, Gage Goncalves and Dominic James.
Then came another playoff exit, and with it another reset. Tampa’s identity in the postseason has drifted.
After back-to-back losses to Florida, the Lightning got pulled into a heavier style that worked against their structure. Against Montreal, they controlled the numbers but not the scoreboard, scoring only four goals over the final three games and dropping Game 7 in overtime despite a 29-9 shot edge.
That loss changed the look of the roster again. Raddysh was shipped to Toronto, and John Carlson came in to replace him. Tampa also brought in Ilya Mikheyev, Jeffrey Viel and Dennis Hildeby, adding speed, depth and goaltending support without touching the top of the lineup.
Offensively, Tampa still has the kind of firepower that keeps it in the league’s upper tier. The Lightning finished fourth in goals per game and fifth in 5-on-5 expected goals, with Kucherov driving everything.
His 130-point season stood out even more because Hedman and Point struggled to provide their usual support. Hedman had just 17 points in 33 games, while Point’s 18 goals and 50 points marked one of his quietest years.
There’s still enough secondary scoring around the core to matter. Goncalves, Mikheyev, Gourde, Pelletier and others can contribute, and James looks like the most intriguing breakout name in the group.
His 1.76 5-on-5 primary points per 60 minutes tied Brady Tkachuk and finished ahead of Filip Forsberg, Auston Matthews and Artemi Panarin. Carlson should also help on the power play, giving Tampa a steadier point option and a more reliable floor than Raddysh provided.
The defensive side remains one of Tampa’s biggest assets. The Lightning allowed the third-fewest goals in the league and ranked sixth in 5-on-5 expected goals against.
McDonagh, Cernak, Moser, Crozier, D’astous and Lilleberg all posted strong defensive numbers. Hedman, surprisingly, graded out as the weakest of the group last season.
The forwards do their part too, especially Anthony Cirelli and Brandon Hagel. Goncalves, Gourde, Harkins, Holmberg, James, Mikheyev and Pelletier give Tampa a lineup that can handle defensive assignments. The one worry is Cirelli’s dip in 2025-26, when his defensive numbers fell sharply away from Hagel.
The real pressure point is in goal, where Vasilevskiy is still the unquestioned starter but can no longer be asked to carry everything. His .912 save percentage was solid, but his 5-on-5 goals saved above expected ranked 16th, a reflection of how much help he had in front of him. The playoff slide continued as well, with Vasilevskiy finishing at .897 after another heavy regular-season workload.
That is why Hildeby matters. Jonas Johansson’s .890 save percentage over three seasons forced Tampa to lean too hard on Vasilevskiy. Hildeby’s .914 save percentage and positive GSAx with Toronto suggest the Lightning may finally have a backup who can take some of that pressure off.
Jon Cooper is also back for his 15th season behind the bench, carrying two Stanley Cups, six conference finals and a Jack Adams Award on his résumé. His structure has helped keep the team afloat through injuries, but four straight first-round exits naturally raise the question of whether this group has hit its limit under him.
Tampa’s prospect pipeline isn’t deep, but it still has life. Sam O’Reilly, Ethan Gauthier and Dylan Duke could all get a look during the season, though none are expected to lock down full-time jobs.
There are a few obvious questions heading into the year. Is there anything left in Hedman’s tank after such a difficult season, especially with Carlson now taking some of the offensive burden?
Can Point rediscover his old level after three straight years of declining shot rates? And how much will Kucherov’s extension shape the cap, especially with stars now landing $20 million deals?
The Lightning are still one of the Atlantic’s better teams, and a healthy roster should get them back to the playoffs. What happens in April is the bigger story. If Vasilevskiy’s workload comes down and Tampa resists the urge to play Florida’s bruising game, the talent is there to finally get over the first-round hump - unless the Panthers are waiting again.
In Other News...
Cooper Sends Lightning An Early Warning They Can't Ignore
Jon Cooper did not sound interested in softening the edges after Tampa Bays season opener, even with some underlying numbers that suggested the Lightning werent as far off as the score indicated. Instead, the veteran coach focused on the bigger problem after a 5-1 loss to the Rangers, saying the effort was not where it needed to be and tying the performance to the kind of letdown the franchise has tried to move past.
For a team that has spent the past several seasons measuring itself by how it responds to disappointment, the opening night result carried an immediate edge. The Lightning are already 0-1-0, and with Washington next on the schedule, the early test is less about the standings than whether Tampa Bay can show the urgency Cooper wants before the season starts to tilt into a familiar concern. [Read more 🡒]
Lightning Already Have One Big Question After Their Ugly Opener
The Lightnings season began with a rough jolt in New York, where they were handled by the Rangers in a lopsided opener that immediately put the spotlight on how quickly they can settle in. There were a few encouraging off-ice notes around the organization, including a $300,000 donation through the clubs Strikes of Kindness initiative, but the on-ice tone was all about getting back on track after a night that left little room for comfort.
One of the first answers Tampa Bay now needs is how its blue line will look with Victor Hedman back after his leave of absence. The veteran defenseman has returned and is physically and mentally ready to play, which gives the Lightning a stabilizing presence at a time when they need one, but it also adds another layer to an early-season group still trying to find its footing after an ugly start. [Read more 🡒]
Lightning Need Pontus Holmberg To Fix A Line They Missed Badly
Pontus Holmbergs absence last spring was felt well beyond the box score. The Lightning lost a useful two-way presence on April 6 when he went down with a season-ending collarbone fracture, and the ripple effect showed up in Tampa Bays performance and playoff run from there. He has since recovered and rejoined the team, giving the coaching staff a versatile forward back in the mix as camp and lineup decisions take shape.
Holmberg is being asked to settle into a new role now, skating on a line with Jeff Viel and Zemgus Girgensons while also seeing time with the second power-play unit. For a Lightning team that missed his steadiness badly after the injury, the challenge now is less about what happened last spring and more about how quickly he can help restore a line the club never really replaced. [Read more 🡒]