Opening night brings the Tampa Bay Lightning right back to the same uneasy question: what happens with Nikita Kucherov after this season?
For now, there’s no extension in place for the reigning Hart Memorial Trophy winner. That alone is enough to keep fans looking over their shoulders a little.
But the latest reporting should calm some of that noise. TSN’s Pierre LeBrun said the chances of Kucherov actually testing the open market are extremely small, and that the expectation is still an extension eventually gets done.
“But having poked around on this file on this day, I can tell you there doesn’t seem to be a red flag other than the fact he’s not signed. In other words, everyone involved is confident this will eventually lead to an extension,” LeBrun said, via TSN.
Kucherov is in the final season of a deal that pays him $9.5 million per year, a number that looks more and more like a bargain with every jump in the market. That contract is ending, and a raise is coming. The only real question is how far the number climbs.
The Lightning should have a better path to working that out than they’ve had in some of their recent offseason squeezes. The salary cap is set to rise to $113.5 million next season, up from $104 million, which gives the team more breathing room than it’s had in a while.
That matters. A lot.
After the 2023-24 season, Tampa Bay was dealing with a much tighter cap situation as the league was only coming off the COVID-19 freeze and the cap rose just $5 million. That was the summer Steven Stamkos left for Nashville, and the Lightning chose to pay Jake Guentzel instead and extend Victor Hedman.
Those were the kinds of decisions that forced Tampa Bay into tougher calls in the years right after its back-to-back Stanley Cup runs. This time, the picture looks less cramped.
That showed up again after Darren Raddysh left for the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Lightning didn’t drag out the replacement process; they brought in John Carlson on a deal with a similar cap hit to what Raddysh had with the Maple Leafs. Carlson is under contract for two seasons, and the move reflected a much more manageable approach to roster building.
That’s the bigger shift here. Tampa Bay isn’t having to slash and scramble just to stay compliant the way it once did. And with another $9 million in cap space coming next season, the Lightning have room to handle Kucherov and still sort out the rest later.
They’ve also been through this kind of thing before. Ryan McDonagh was another pending free agent with uncertainty around his future, and before the new year, that deal got done. The Kucherov situation appears headed the same way.
In Other News...
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Jon Cooper has already mapped out some of the opening-night usage around him, with Hedman expected to help on the penalty kill while others handle the top power-play assignments. It is a reminder that Tampa Bay is not simply plugging veterans back in and hoping for the best, but trying to manage minutes carefully as it opens another season with real expectations and a few lineup decisions that signal how the coach wants this group to look from the start. [Read more 🡒]
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Conor Geekie is part of that conversation after forcing his way onto the opening-night roster with a preseason that turned heads, while the depth chart behind Andrei Vasilevskiy has also shifted with Dennis Hildeby stepping in as the new backup after Jonas Johansson's departure. The Lightning do not need both questions answered immediately, but they do need clarity quickly, and how those pieces fit could go a long way toward shaping the tone of the first month. [Read more 🡒]
Lightning Get Early Chance To Rewrite A Frustrating Rangers Trend
The Lightning head into Madison Square Garden with a chance to run into a familiar Rangers issue, because New York has not exactly made a habit of delivering crisp home-opening performances. The Rangers are trying to set a different tone after a rough start last season, and this early matchup gives them an immediate test in front of their own fans.
From Tampa Bays side, there is also a recent backdrop worth watching. The Rangers have generally handled this matchup better of late, which makes this one more than a routine date on the schedule for a Lightning team looking to spoil the building and keep New York from rewriting an uncomfortable trend right away. [Read more 🡒]