The Lightning are walking into the season with a problem they’d probably rather not have: Nikita Kucherov is still unsigned beyond 2026-27.
That’s the headline, and it’s a meaningful one. Tampa Bay’s best player, the reigning Hart Trophy winner, is in place for now, but the sides have not found common ground on an extension after a summer that saw the market jump with a string of massive contracts.
General manager Julien BriseBois has never been one to negotiate loosely. He leans on performance data, market comparables and his own valuation of a player, and once he sets that number, he doesn’t move easily.
That approach has helped keep the Lightning competitive over the long haul, even as the salary cap climbs. But Kucherov is not a standard case, and if BriseBois wants to keep him in Tampa Bay beyond this season, he may have to step outside his usual playbook.
Kucherov is entering his mid-30s, but the production hasn’t let up. He’s coming off a three-year run that produced an unmatched scoring pace, and after an MVP season there’s no evidence he’s slowing down. NHL insider Chris Johnston reported last month that Kucherov’s camp was looking for something around $20 million per year on a six-year deal.
That number sounds outrageous until you look at the market that was set this summer. Ducks forward Leo Carlsson’s five-year offer sheet at an $18 million annual average value reset expectations, and then the Sharks’ Macklin Celebrini landed a five-year deal at $18.8 million AAV. Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar followed with an eight-year extension worth $20.4 million per season.
Even so, the Lightning have built their recent championship formula on something very different: spreading money around, avoiding one or two enormous contracts and keeping the roster balanced. No team with a player making more than $10 million a season has won the Stanley Cup, though that streak could end this year, with 29 players on 18 different teams now earning more than that.
Tampa Bay has stayed away from that territory. The Lightning don’t have anyone above $9.5 million a year, and Kucherov, Andrei Vasilevskiy and Brayden Point all sit at that number. They also have nine players under $1 million annually, while getting major value from long-term deals like Brandon Hagel at $6.5 million AAV and Anthony Cirelli at $6.25 million.
That structure was easier to maintain during the flat-cap years, when players took less to chase titles and Florida’s tax advantage helped the Lightning keep more money in their core group’s pockets than teams in places like Canada, New York or California.
But if there’s a player who is clearly playing below his true worth, it’s Kucherov. Benchrates pegged his performance last season, including the playoffs, at $15.3 million based on basic numbers like goals and assists.
Using deeper metrics such as expected goals, that figure jumped to $20.9 million. Makar’s expected-goals value came in at $16.5 million, while Celebrini’s was $16.9 million.
BriseBois said the team believes Kucherov still has several elite seasons left and wants to remain in Tampa Bay. The question is how far the Lightning are willing to go to make that happen.
A $20 million AAV next season would eat up 17.6% of the club’s cap, even with the ceiling rising to $113.5 million. By comparison, no player on the current payroll accounts for more than 9.1%.
There’s also the matter of what comes next. Tampa Bay could be talking about a new deal with Vasilevskiy next summer, when he enters the final year of his contract. BriseBois has been willing to use extra term to reduce the cap hit, but at this point he cannot go beyond seven years on Kucherov.
The tax difference matters too. In places like Toronto, Montreal, New York or Los Angeles, Kucherov would be giving up roughly $2 million to $3.2 million annually in taxes compared with what he would net in Florida.
That is where the idea of a hometown discount starts to become real. It doesn’t mean BriseBois would suddenly be comfortable at $17 million or $18 million, but if Kucherov hits free agency after another strong season, a $20 million payday would not be surprising.
That kind of player rarely makes it to market while still performing at this level.
The Lightning’s contract uncertainty isn’t limited to Kucherov, either. Colorado made a notable move this week that Tampa Bay has not matched in years, announcing a multiyear extension for head coach Jared Bednar on Wednesday morning, just before the Avalanche opened their season. Bednar, the NHL’s second-longest-tenured coach behind Jon Cooper, was in the final year of his deal and is now under contract through 2030-31.
Colorado has its own high-end talent and its own frustrations after winning a Stanley Cup a few years ago, but the timing of Bednar’s extension sent a clear message. The Avalanche had already locked up Makar, and now they’ve reinforced the bench as well.
The Lightning have not publicly done that with Cooper since 2021, when he received a three-year extension after the second of back-to-back Cup wins. That deal was announced right before he was set to enter the final year of his previous contract.
It is believed Cooper signed another extension before last season, but Tampa Bay never announced it. BriseBois was asked to clarify Cooper’s status at the end of the last two seasons and did not, saying only that it matters that Cooper has term.
Given that every one of Cooper’s previous extensions has been for three years, it is reasonable to believe the current one is the same length, which would keep him under contract through 2028-29.
Unlike player contracts, coaching and front-office deals don’t have to be announced because they don’t affect the salary cap. Still, Cooper is a future Hall of Famer and widely regarded as the league’s best coach.
Any team would want him. That’s why the lack of an announcement keeps the speculation alive every time a major coaching job opens up.
For a franchise that has spent years projecting stability, the silence around two of its most important figures stands out.
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